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Black Friday Data Shows Mixed Bag of Data as Economy Sputters

Christine Bowen's profile
By Christine Bowen
December 2, 2025
Black Friday Data Shows Mixed Bag of Data as Economy Sputters

The numbers are in. While this year's Black Friday featured robust sales, the data also proves what many Americans have long known - you are paying more for less this season. Here is a closer look at retail numbers from what is historically the busiest shopping day of the year, as well as a peek at what is on tap for Cyber Monday.

Sales Up on Black Friday, But So Were Prices

You are not imagining it if you feel like you are getting more for less recently. Mastercard reported that U.S. retail sales saw an increase of 4.1% from last year on Black Friday. Adobe Analytics reported that online shopping increased by 9.1%. According to estimates by Salesforce, Cyber Monday sales are expected to jump by 4%.

The numbers are a bright light in what has been an otherwise dire retail situation in recent months. Lower consumer confidence and rising inflation did not offer much hope heading into the holiday season. While the strong numbers are certainly good news for a struggling economy, the truth is that Americans are spending more but getting less in return.

Shopping sale
Credit: Adobe Stock

For example, Salesforce noted that although overall online shopping in the U.S. increased by 3% on Black Friday, a large part of the increase was simply due to a 7% jump in selling prices. Salesforce also detailed that order volume dropped by 1% when compared to Black Friday data from 2024. Units per transaction slipped by 2% in 2025.

Prices are also on the rise. Salesforce said that the cost of goods during Cyber Week is up 7%, on average. This compares to the 5% increase noted last year. All of this means that consumers are spending more money per item; however, they are still spending at a fast clip.

Role of Tariffs on Consumer Spending

What role are tariffs playing in these trends? Salesforce believes that at least part of the problem can be blamed on the Trump administration's tariff strategy. According to The Budget Lab at Yale, tariffs on U.S. imports are currently at the highest level since 1935.

It is challenging to determine how much of the price hikes are definitively linked to tariffs. Many of the retail categories seeing the biggest price surges also happen to be some of the categories that have been impacted by tariffs. For example, the average online price for home goods was up 24% this Black Friday. This is a category that has been at the mercy of the Trump tariffs in recent months. It was just in October that Trump placed significant tariffs on furniture imports.

Salesforce also detailed that online prices are up 6% on clothing and apparel and 7% on electronics. Both of these retail categories have been slapped with high tariffs.

Some economists note that a good chunk of the American consumer base is spending more discretionary income on categories that are naturally higher in price. This includes luxury home goods that will inherently jack up the overall price per good.

Impact of Economy on Lower-Income Consumers

The data coming out of Black Friday and Cyber Monday does not give information about the demographics doing most of the spending. Economists have been warning for months that while higher-income Americans are still spending aggressively, lower-income consumers are cutting back as they try to make ends meet amid rising inflation.

Holiday christmas shopping
Credit: Adobe Stock

A Gallup poll released prior to the holidays detailed that American households earning less than $50,000 annually said that they would have to cut back on spending this year, going from $776 last year to $651 this year. Middle-income Americans reported a smaller cut in planned spending this holiday season, falling from $902 in 2024 to $847 in 2025.

This is in contrast to high-income families, a demographic that signaled that it will spend slightly more this season. This group said it plans on spending an average of $1,479 this season, up from $1,403 in 2024.

The data that suggests consumers are more price sensitive this year may have prompted some stores to slash prices deeper over the weekend. Cyber Monday deals were helping to spur more spending when compared to Black Friday. Salesforce said that U.S. order volume turned positive as the weekend progressed, increasing by 2% on Saturday and Sunday for an overall sales growth increase of 5%.

Cyber Monday is forecast to haul in the big money this year. Salesforce predicts total sales of online shopping on this day to hit $13.4 billion, up 4% from the same day last year. The best deals are likely to be found in home goods, health and beauty products, and clothing.

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