A 'Quiet' Hurricane Season Can Still Be Deadly. History Proves It.

The official arrival of El Niño has dominated the weather headlines over the last several days. One of the key impacts of the onset of this climate phase is the prediction that the Atlantic basin will see a quieter hurricane season. This is because El Niño supports the development of disruptive wind shear across the Atlantic, putting a lid on tropical weather in the process. 

However, that does not mean that there are not any potential dangers lurking. Even the strongest El Niño years have seen significant tropical landfalls along the U.S. coastline. Read on for the details.

Connection Between El Niño and Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño years have averaged approximately 10 named storms and five hurricanes since the beginning of the satellite era in the 1960s. These numbers are well under the historical average. For comparison, La Niña years average about 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. When the equatorial Pacific is in a neutral phase, the Atlantic produces an average of 13 named storms, seven of which go on to become hurricanes.

It is important to remember that while the presence of El Niño is likely to lower the overall storm volume, it will not shut down the season entirely. In fact, the U.S. is still expected to see three to five direct strikes from tropical storms or hurricanes by the time that the Atlantic season comes to an end on November 30.

The old cliche "all it takes is one storm" could very well hold this year. History has taught us that the season can pose deadly hazards even when numbers come in below the historical average.

The most impactful  El Niño Atlantic seasons in the satellite era were in 1972, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2002, and 2015. All of these years ushered in tropical storm or hurricane landfalls in the U.S. that triggered substantial damage.

The Storms That Hit Anyway: Notable U.S. Landfalls During El Niño Years

Now let's take a look at some of the most notable tropical weather events to impact the U.S. during an El Niño year. Hurricane Agnes from 1972 is distinguished for its historic flooding that overtook parts of Pennsylvania, well away from its point of landfall near Panama City, Florida, on June 19. Agnes was responsible for 119 deaths in the U.S. alone.

One decade later, Tropical Storm Chris came ashore in September near the border of Texas and Louisiana. Chris unleashed 16 inches of rain in the community of Delhi, Louisiana. The severe flooding made it as far inland as Kentucky. The storm also produced an F2 tornado.

Hurricane Floyd hit the Florida Keys in 1987 as a Category 1 event. The heavy rain bands associated with Floyd caused flooding in a zone from Miami to the north into Fort Pierce.

Fast forwarding to 1997, Hurricane Danny roared onto the coastline of Louisiana before making a second landfall in Alabama. Danny came ashore in both states as a Category 1 hurricane. Dauphin Island, Alabama, bore the brunt of the rainfall, notching more than 3 feet of moisture. To this day, Danny carries the distinction of being the wettest tropical cyclone ever to impact the state of Alabama.

But Danny was not done when it finished with Alabama. North Carolina saw over a foot of rain and five tornadoes as a result of Danny. The hurricane was blamed for nine fatalities by the time that it wrapped up.

Going back to the El Niño year of 2002, Hurricane Lili exploded into a Category 4 storm in the Gulf before weakening to a Category 1 event just before landfall in Louisiana. Two people were killed in the U.S., and another 13 died in the Caribbean at the hands of Lili. Four additional tropical storms made landfall in Louisiana in this record-setting year for the bayou.

Lastly, Tropical Storm Bill churned over the Texas coastline in June of 2015. This storm dumped over 10 inches of rain across Texas and into Oklahoma. About one month earlier, Tropical Storm Ana became the earliest U.S. landfalling storm on record when it came ashore in South Carolina. Ana killed two people and dumped over 6 inches of rain across the Carolinas.

The takeaway from the lessons of the past is that it is important to plan ahead and be aware of tropical weather dangers, even during quieter El Niño years. The storms over the years have proven that it is still likely that a significant tropical event will impact the U.S. in the coming months. Do not take the threat of Mother Nature lightly just because the expectations are trending toward a less active season in the tropics.

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