A Super El Niño Could Mean Less Lake-Effect Snow Around the Great Lakes

The intensifying Super El Niño could limit the amount of lake-effect snow that whips up around the Great Lakes this winter. Here is a closer look at how this climate phase may influence the amount of snow that falls in this region.

Could the Super El Niño Drive Down Snow Totals Across the Great Lakes?

The Super El Niño is set up to drive nearly every facet of the weather this winter across the U.S. This influence will also spill over to the lake-effect snow machine that typically drives overall precipitation in the Great Lakes region.

Forecasters are predicting that the expectation of a record-strong El Niño could result in a drier winter across much of the Great Lakes. This was evident last week when a cross-country storm did not produce any meaningful snow for this part of the country that generally begins to see the flakes fly in November.

While an area of lower pressure coming together on the backside of the weather maker brought down cooler air across Lake Superior, it was not enough to support the development of widespread snow. Warmer than usual temperatures across Michigan's Upper Peninsula also worked to keep the snow in check.

El Niño happens when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific trend warmer than normal. This warming in the equatorial Pacific inherently changes circulation patterns in the atmosphere that go on to influence the weather around the globe. This includes driving changes to temperatures and precipitation patterns. This year's El Niño is already approaching record territory, meaning that it will have even more influence on the overall weather.

A Super El Niño winter generally results in warmer-than-average conditions across the northern third of the U.S. This includes the Great Lakes region.

The climate phase has the power to influence the position of the polar jet stream, pushing it farther to the north. This movement limits the ability of Arctic air to dive to the south. An absence of Arctic air makes it more difficult for lake-effect snow to take hold over the Great Lakes.

Lake-effect snow relies on an abundance of cold air moving over the warmer lake water. The movement of this air creates instability in the atmosphere, generating winds that bring the cold air across the lakes and pull up moisture to dump it along the shores. As temperatures tend to hover above normal in the northern U.S. during  El Niño winters, it becomes less likely that the conditions needed to create lake-effect snow will be available.

What History Says About El Niño Winters and Lake-Effect Snow

History has shown that the conditions during strong El Niño winters do indeed put a lid on lake-effect snow. Many cities in the Great Lakes have seen below-average snow totals when El Niño is in charge. For instance, the 2015 - 2016 winter in Cleveland saw just 24.9 inches between November and March. This compares to the city's seasonal average of 51.4 inches.

During that same El Niño winter, Grand Rapids, Michigan, experienced snowfall totals well below normal. The community notched 51.7 inches, compared to the average reading of 66.8 inches. Likewise, Marquette, Michigan, also came in notably below the average. This lakefront city recorded 118.8 inches that same winter. For context, the average snowfall pickup for Marquette is a whopping 186.1 inches.

Moving to the east, Buffalo recorded 48 inches during that El Niño winter. The seasonal average for the city along the shores of Lake Erie is 85.7 inches. That same year, Buffalo did not see its first measurable snowfall until December 18. This was almost two weeks later than average.

All of that said, a weather maker setting up by the end of the week could result in the first snow of the year in many communities in the Great Lakes. Stay with us as we continue to track the development of this system as the week progresses.

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