After Weeks of Flooding, a Calmer Stretch Is Ahead for the Southwest

Relief is finally coming to the Southwest. After days of heavy rain and the associated flooding, a drier weather pattern is going to set up over the southwestern U.S. as the storm track lifts to the north. While the change in the weather is good news for the flood-weary Southwest, the Northwest will now be under the gun for severe impacts.

Southwest and Four Corners Ready to Dry Out

It has been a rough few weeks for residents of the Desert Southwest and the Four Corners regions. Repeated rounds of heavy rain have triggered multiple flash flooding events since the end of September. A parade of slow-moving storms has combined with fresh waves of tropical moisture from the Pacific to fuel the heavy rain.

Last weekend's atmospheric river sent water levels in rivers and streams to historic highs. The hardest-hit areas of Southern California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Texas picked up two to 10 times the historical average of rain in a period from late September through the first few days of November.

For example, Clovis, New Mexico, has recorded 28.48 inches of rain over the last six weeks. For context, the 30-year average for this community over the same period is 3.30 inches. This total also exceeds Clovis' average rainfall by over 8 inches, speaking to the magnitude of this moisture.

After months of record-breaking tropical storms and hurricanes, the activity in the Eastern Pacific is starting to ease as the season winds down. The diminishing tropical activity will naturally result in a drier weather pattern for the Southwest through the middle of November. While it will mostly be dry for the Southwest, forecasters are predicting that a weak storm could skirt past the southern edge of New Mexico before entering Texas over the weekend.

Residents of the Southwest weary of the rain should be encouraged that the moisture has been beneficial for area lakes, rivers, and reservoirs. Water levels in the critical reservoirs of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are expected to continue to rise as swollen rivers and streams continue to send their runoff downstream.

However, climatologists say that just as it took years of drought to bring these parched reservoirs down to historic lows this summer, it will also take a lot of time to bring the levels back up. A wet winter will go a long way in helping to replenish these water stores.

Storm Action Increases in the Northwest

The opposite weather situation is forecast to unfold across the Pacific Northwest in the coming days. The storm track that has been targeting the Southwest will lift to the north and send repeated rounds of rain into this corner of the country.

The zone from Northern California and to the north into western Oregon, Washington, and southwestern British Columbia will see a wet stretch of days. Several inches of rain are in the forecast for the lower elevations and foothills of the Pacific Northwest. Cities such as Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver will see their dry streak come to an end.

Areas that pick up the heaviest downpours could be dealing with flash flooding concerns. This threat will be the highest along the foothills and in urban areas.

A fresh infusion of cold temperatures will also support the development of snow in the higher elevations across the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. This snow is likely to cause travel delays over the mountain passes in this region.

The first storm wave is forecast to hit by the end of this week. For example, Seattle will see rain move in on Friday, with spotty showers in the forecast for the weekend. Temperatures will remain consistent with the Emerald City, with highs in the low to mid 50s. A brief warm-up and drier period will bring the mercury into the low 60s before the next round of rain arrives by early in the work week.

The shaky weather pattern will persist through mid-November. It is also at this time that the storm track will dip farther south, bringing more of California into the fold.

Stay with us for all of the latest as the storm train ramps up over the Northwest in the coming days.

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