The Asteroids That Almost Hit Earth and the One Coming in 2029

Space is vast, but Earth's neighborhood can feel surprisingly crowded. In the past two decades, several asteroids have passed close enough to Earth to qualify as some of the nearest recorded misses in history. Most slipped by unnoticed by the general public. One exploded over Russia and shattered windows across six cities. And in 2029, one of the largest ever tracked will pass closer to Earth than many of our own satellites.

The Closest Recorded Near-Misses in Modern History

The record for closest confirmed approach belongs to a small asteroid designated 2020 VT4. In November 2020, it passed just 383 kilometers above Earth's surface, roughly the altitude of the International Space Station. Astronomers didn't even detect it until after it had already gone past. At only about five meters wide, 2020 VT4 would have burned up in the atmosphere had it been on a collision course, but its flyby was a reminder of how quickly objects can arrive without warning.

In March 2004, asteroid 2004 FU162 passed within 6,500 kilometers of Earth, closer than most weather satellites. At around 10 meters wide, it posed no real threat even if it had entered the atmosphere. More recently, in January 2023, an asteroid called 2023 BU passed about 3,600 kilometers above South America, closer than some high-altitude weather satellites and well below the orbit of GPS satellites. It measured between 3.5 and 8.5 meters across, and astronomers detected it just days before the flyby.

Chelyabinsk: The One That Actually Hit

Not every near-Earth asteroid misses. On February 15, 2013, an 18-meter-wide asteroid entered the atmosphere over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk without any prior detection. It exploded in an airburst about 30 kilometers above the ground, releasing energy estimated at 30 times the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The shockwave shattered windows across six cities, collapsed part of a zinc factory roof, and sent more than 1,500 people to seek medical attention, most injured by flying glass. No one was killed, but the event demonstrated that even a relatively small rock, arriving unannounced, can cause widespread damage.

Chelyabinsk became a direct call to action for planetary defense efforts worldwide, accelerating funding for asteroid detection and tracking programs.

Apophis in 2029: Closer Than Our Own Satellites

No asteroid has captured public attention quite like Apophis. Discovered on June 19, 2004, it briefly carried a 2.7% probability of striking Earth in 2029, the highest impact probability ever assigned to an asteroid of its size. Additional observations brought that number to zero, and a close flyby in 2021 allowed radar tracking precise enough for NASA to confirm that Apophis poses no impact risk for at least the next 100 years.

But the 2029 encounter itself will be extraordinary. On April 13, 2029, which falls on a Friday the 13th, Apophis will pass approximately 32,000 kilometers from Earth's surface, closer than the geostationary communications satellites that carry our television and weather signals. According to NASA's Apophis fact sheet, an asteroid this large passing this close happens only once every few thousand years on average. At roughly 450 meters across, Apophis is taller than the Eiffel Tower and longer than five football fields.

From Europe, Africa, and western Asia, observers will be able to watch Apophis move across the night sky with the naked eye, appearing as a bright, rapidly moving star. The Planetary Society describes the flyby as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to study a near-Earth asteroid in unprecedented detail. NASA has already redirected a spacecraft, OSIRIS-APEX, to meet Apophis after the close approach, while the European Space Agency's Ramses mission will accompany the asteroid through the flyby itself.

Scientists will use the encounter to measure how Earth's gravity warps the rotation and surface of the passing body, information that could prove critical if a future asteroid ever needs to be deflected.

Planetary Defense Has Come a Long Way — But Gaps Remain

Planetary defense has matured significantly since Chelyabinsk. NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ground-based observatories now catalog thousands of near-Earth asteroids. The work connects to the same basic principle that drives geology and Earth science: ancient physical records contain the answers to future risks.

The vast majority of near-Earth asteroids are tracked, catalogued, and confirmed to pose no immediate threat. But a small fraction, like 2020 VT4, still slip past undetected.

For now, April 2029 is circled in the calendars of observatories on every continent. Apophis is coming, and this time, scientists will be ready.

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