Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet but More Activity Expected Soon

Just as forecasters have been predicting for months, the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start thanks to the influence of a strengthening El Niño phase. Will it remain quiet all season, or is the worst yet to come? Read on for the latest long-range forecast.

Atlantic Basin Remains Asleep

It has been a tale of two basins this year in the tropics. Although the Atlantic Ocean has been uncharacteristically calm thus far, activity has already ramped up in the Pacific basin.

The Pacific basin has seen plenty of action this year, with four named storms already on the record books. Meanwhile, the emergence of El Niño is contributing to the calm conditions in the Atlantic. This is not unusual, as El Niño years have frequently resulted in reduced activity in the Atlantic.

Tropical weather events need a combination of factors to drive storm formation and spread. The first critical ingredient is warm ocean waters. Budding tropical features also need to find areas with little to no wind shear in order to grow and intensify. Strong wind shear works to disrupt the center of the storm, breaking it apart and putting a lid on development. Conversely, weaker wind shear provides a fertile breeding ground for storms to organize if the other ingredients are in place.

The Atlantic basin has seen high amounts of wind shear in recent weeks, mitigating the odds of tropical weather. In addition, frequent intrusions of dry Saharan air coming off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic have further reduced the chances of tropical weather development.

It should be noted that this is the time of the year when the Atlantic basin tends to experience a lull in tropical activity. For instance, the second named storm of the season in this corner of the globe forms by July 17 on average.

Is More Action in the Atlantic Ahead?

Forecasters are warning that the second half of July could see an increase in tropical activity. For one thing, there is plenty of warm water to work with. Sea-surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic have been running well over the historical average for this time of the year. This means that there is plenty of fuel for tropical systems to ignite and develop.

These exceptionally warm temperatures are the most prevalent along the U.S. coastline. This is particularly worrisome, as storms that form closer to the coastline do not provide as much lead time for residents to prepare compared to systems that come to life in the middle of the Atlantic.

In addition to this area of concern, this is when you can expect to see an increased frequency of tropical waves ejecting off the coast of Africa and moving across the Atlantic. While many of these waves will remain weak and disorganized as they make the long trek across the Atlantic, they could become stronger when they reach the warm waters circulating in the Caribbean and near the coastline of the U.S.

What is Happening in the Pacific Basin?

Moving over to the Pacific basin, hurricane experts are paying close attention to a zone of potential development off the coast of Mexico in the eastern part of the basin. This area could see development happen in the middle of the month. However, the remote location of this area of concern means that there would not likely be significant impacts to land. The warm ocean waters and the expectation of decreasing wind shear by the middle of July are why forecasters believe the Eastern Pacific could be ripe for development in a week or two.

The Western Pacific basin has been a hotbed of activity in recent weeks. Two major storms have come to life in this part of the world's oceans in the last week alone.

Super Typhoon Bavi reached peak sustained winds of 127 mph and gusts that hit 178 mph as it approached Guam and Saipan. Winds of these speeds are equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane as defined on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Bavi dropped over a foot of rain in addition to the hurricane-force winds when it crossed over the island of Guam.

This storm is forecast to move to the northwest in the days ahead, eventually reaching portions of Taiwan and China. As of the latest update, Bavi is predicted to deliver winds up to 160 mph throughout much of eastern China and Taiwan by Friday. Local officials are warning that widespread power outages, structural damage, and disruptions to everyday life are likely.

In the same vicinity, forecasters are keeping an eye on the area around the Mariana Islands for more development from Friday and into the early part of next week. Any potential development could bring heavy rain and gusty conditions through the weekend, compounding the misery left behind by Bavi's wrath.

Lastly, the storm now known as Maysak is currently tracking across the South China Sea and into China, ushering in heavy rain bands and high winds.

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