Atlantic hurricane season comes alive with 2 tropical threats emerging
A tropical activity uptick is looming as two development areas emerge in the Atlantic—one southeast of Bermuda and a well-organized wave off Africa—amid an intensifying El Niño and a historical surge in late August to early September. Forecasters warn that even if one system fails to become a tropical cyclone, it could still bring gale conditions to trans-Atlantic shipping and nearby waters. The environment features persistent wind shear and dry air, which have already curtailed some disturbances, while the African wave could strengthen if it remains organized and moves north of Puerto Rico. The longer-range outlook notes that El Niño could influence activity across basins and potentially reshape winter storm patterns, with this El Niño possibly among the strongest on record. The season’s first hurricane timing remains variable, underscoring ongoing uncertainty and heightened vigilance into fall.
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Two areas with potential for development are identified: a disturbance near Bermuda in the central Atlantic and a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa, signaling the onset of heightened late-season activity.
Forecasters describe a low-level center near Bermuda that remains separated from most thunderstorm activity; if it realigns, rapid organization and strengthening could occur, though the system is expected to stay east of the United States.
The African wave is more organized than typical waves this season, but its future depends on continued organization and the surrounding air mass; it could strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane as it travels north of the Leeward Islands.
Environmentally, dry air and pockets of strong wind shear in the Caribbean have hindered development recently, with conditions potentially becoming more favorable for the Atlantic wave if shear relaxes.
A persistent wind-shear and dry-air regime is anticipated to persist this week, suppressing some disturbances but not eliminating the risk of a tropical system forming from the Atlantic wave.
Historically, Atlantic activity ramps up from late August into early September, with a climatological peak around Sept. 10, while models note the season is overdue for its first hurricane.
El Niño conditions are strengthening and may become one of the strongest on record, potentially affecting Atlantic activity and broad winter storm patterns across the western United States.