California's Next Big Flood Threat Is Already Taking Shape

Christy Bowen
By Christy Bowen
July 10, 2026
California's Next Big Flood Threat Is Already Taking Shape

Meteorologists have been warning for months that the emerging El NiƱo phase could end up going down in the record books as one of the strongest ever. A new seasonal forecast released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the building El NiƱo event coming together in the central Pacific Ocean is moving toward record territory. What does this mean for the U.S.? Read on for how a stronger El NiƱo could mean an elevated flood threat for California.

Map showing sea surface temperature anomalies as of July 8, 2026, with warming visible across the equatorial Pacific consistent with a strengthening El NiƱo
Credit: Warming waters across the equatorial Pacific point to a strengthening El NiƱo pattern. (Climate Central)

Soaker of a Winter Setting Up for California?

The latest forecast models from ECMWF signal that California could be in store for a wet and potentially hazardous winter, thanks to the impacts of an intensifying El NiƱo. Times of El NiƱo typically translate to increased odds of above-average rain for the West Coast.

The influx of moisture is the result of a wider and wavier jet stream coming from the Pacific, sending a great volume of moisture-rich storms into the Golden State. The jet stream functions as a conveyor belt, ushering in storms from the warm waters of the Pacific and into the western U.S. A more potent jet stream due to El NiƱo inherently raises the odds of moisture-rich storms.

 The South Yuba River roars under the Old Route 49 bridge in Nevada City, California, during a major flood event
Credit: Raging floodwaters overwhelm the South Yuba River under a bridge in Nevada City. (Wikimedia Commons)

For California specifically, a stronger El NiƱo will likely mean a greater threat of powerful atmospheric rivers. These plumes of moisture act as fire hoses in the winter, dumping heavy rain on the lower terrains and snow in the mountainous region. This is why forecasters are warning that California's next flood event is already taking shape.

Satellite-based graphic showing a plume of moisture, an atmospheric river, stretching from near Hawaii into California
Credit: Atmospheric rivers funnel huge amounts of tropical moisture directly into California. (NOAA/NESDIS)

On the flip side, the Pacific Northwest could see a drier and warmer winter due to the impacts of an intensifying El NiƱo. This is generally the case as the primary train of storms gets stuck south of Oregon, leaving areas to the north of the track on the dry side.

Only time will tell if these general trends will come to fruition. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is set to release its latest El NiƱo forecast on Thursday, providing additional guidance. For now, forecasters are warning Californians to buckle up for what could be a wet winter as El NiƱo continues to strengthen.


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