Common El Niño Myths, and What Scientists Say Is Really Happening
You have likely heard the term El Niño thrown around a lot lately. The climate phase has been driving weather patterns around the world, including in the U.S., for several months. While most people understand what the term means, they might not comprehend the specifics of this influential factor. Here are a few of the most common misconceptions about El Niño.
No El Niño Behaves the Same
The first thing that climatologists want you to understand is that every El Niño is different, meaning it is challenging to predict exactly how this year's phase will play out in real time. Climatologists will look to past El Niño years to predict general weather trends; however, every El Niño event will differ in some way.
This is because each El Niño event does not occur in a vacuum. The phase develops largely due to the other influences around it, such as the strength of the polar vortex or shifts in the jet stream. The bottom line is that no two El Niños are ever the same, making it difficult to predict with precision how this one will play out.
Climatologists also want people to know that El Niño is not always the boogeyman that people make it out to be. Some parts of the U.S. will actually benefit from a strong El Niño. For instance, the Atlantic hurricane season has been atypically calm this year due to these impacts.
There will also be parts of the country that are expected to see warm-than-usual temperatures this winter, helping to lower energy demand and the resulting heating costs.
On the flip side, the potent El Niño has unleashed an exceptionally active hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific this season, including three storms to impact Hawaii.
Clearing Up Misconceptions About Kelvin Waves
Kelvin waves are a common occurrence when El Niño is in charge. These waves contribute to the formation and support of the El Niño event; however, their impacts are mostly felt under the surface of the ocean. The waves fuel El Niño by transporting the ocean heat from the western part of the Pacific into the eastern and central portions.
The waves typically come ashore in South America and then migrate to the north along the U.S. West Coast. Although you cannot usually see a Kelvin wave migrating through the region, their presence is marked by sea level rises of as much as a foot. In addition to the role that they play in transporting ocean heat, they also make the coastline more susceptible to erosion and flooding when winter storms ignite.
Relationship Between El Niño and Climate Change is Murky
The relationship between El Niño and human-caused climate change is not all that clear. While some studies show that global warming could amplify the impacts of El Niño, other studies do not make that connection.
What is known is that this current super El Niño is unfolding as the world's oceans are already experiencing record warm temperatures. This means that it is only natural that the climate phase is likely to see more severe impacts when compared to past El Niño cycles. While El Niño happens every three to seven years, only a small fraction of these go on to be defined as a super El Niño.
Scientists also note that you are unlikely to see any drastic swings from day to day due to El Niño. This is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes the data in weekly and monthly snapshots. The recent batches of weekly data from NOAA's “Relative Oceanic Niño Index” show that this El Niño is on pace to set an all-time intensity record in November or December.
Lastly, meteorologists make the distinction that while El Niño influences storm patterns, it is not a storm itself. Instead, this weather phenomenon is best described as a long-duration event that elevates the threat of extreme weather for certain areas over its lifespan.
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