Could This Stalled System Near Florida Turn Tropical? What to Know
You might want to make alternate plans this weekend if you were planning to soak up the Florida sunshine. It is set up to be a soggy weekend for much of South Florida as a surge of tropical moisture unleashes heavy rain. Here is a look at what to expect across the peninsula through the weekend.
South Florida Braces for Flooding Threat
South Florida has dodged major tropical weather impacts this season; however, that does not mean that it has been clear and calm. Another round of moisture originating in the tropics is going to fuel a multi-day flood threat across the region in the days ahead. The bulk of the rain will be focused on the southern part of the state.
Forecasters are warning that the busy Interstate 95 corridor is likely to pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain through Tuesday. Some of the heaviest-hit areas could see up to 8 inches of precipitation by the time that this system wraps up.
A potent zone of low pressure is coming together near Cuba. This system is expected to anchor itself over the Caribbean and South Florida, pulling up a plume of tropical moisture that will support the development of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
In addition to the presence of tropical moisture coming in from the Atlantic, the peak of the King Tides this weekend will amplify the threat of coastal flooding. King Tides naturally occur when the gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon align with the Earth. This tide cycle happens during a new or full moon as the celestial body is at its closest point to Earth.
Timing of the Rainy and Stormy Conditions
The thunderstorm action is forecast to fire up just off the coast of southeastern Florida on Thursday, bringing the impacts to the major cities in this corner of the state. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk on Thursday in a zone from Miami to the north into Jupiter.
This same area has been put under a Level 2 threat on Saturday. This risk will persist through Sunday.
Breezy conditions will pair with the repeated rounds of rain to push extra water onshore, triggering minor or moderate coastal flooding. This risk will be the greatest during the peak high tides this weekend.
Beachgoers will want to be aware of the risk of rip currents and high surf conditions. These threats will be a concern well into next week.
Looking at a few specific forecasts, Miami will be under a thick cloud cover on Thursday with scattered rain showers, winds out of the north-northeast at 10 to 15 mph, and highs that top out in the low 80s. Sunday and Monday are shaping up to be the most volatile weather days, with widespread thunderstorms, periods of heavy rain, and winds out of the north-northeast at 20 to 30. Gusts could hit 40 mph during this time.
The front half of the weekend will be the time to check out Key Largo. The persistent rain and wind will reach this part of the Florida Keys by Sunday, disrupting outdoor plans in the tourist hot spot.
If you are looking for actual sun in the Sunshine State, the Gulf Coast region is expecting mostly pleasant conditions with plentiful sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Places such as Fort Myers, just a few hours west of Miami, will enjoy sunny skies and highs that hover in the mid 80s. The caveat is that this part of the peninsula will still be under the gun for breezy conditions over the next several days.
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