Cristina to Hammer Central America with Heavy Rain; May Also Fuel Development in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Cristina is continuing to dump heavy rain across portions of Central America and is expected to dissipate by Friday. But the system may not be done after menacing this part of the Eastern Pacific. Read on for a look at how Cristina 's remnants may also fuel the development of a tropical weather maker in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf.

Tropical Storm Cristina Targets Central America with Torrential Rain

Tropical Storm Boris has dissipated over southern Mexico, but Tropical Storm Cristina has taken up the mantle, bringing dangerous conditions to Central America. What eventually became Cristina ignited over the weekend as a tropical rainstorm, intensifying into a tropical depression on Monday morning before strengthening into a tropical storm a few hours later.

Cristina has since been downgraded to a tropical depression, with the National Hurricane Center reporting maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with higher gusts. The system was nearing El Salvador late Wednesday and is expected to make landfall overnight before tracking inland through Thursday, with the NHC forecasting dissipation over Guatemala.

The NHC noted that Cristina has continued to lose organization, with the cyclone center becoming less well defined in satellite imagery. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect along the coast of El Salvador, as tropical storm conditions — particularly in gusts — remain possible.

After moving inland, Cristina is forecast to track across Central America toward southeastern Mexico before dissipating Friday morning. The storm will bring gusty winds and flooding rain to parts of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, with mudslides likely over the higher terrain.

Despite the weakening trend, heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible, especially in areas of steep terrain.

How Cristina's Remnants Could Spark Tropical Development in the Gulf

Although the Eastern Pacific has been popping off with tropical activity early in the season, all has been quiet in the Atlantic basin. Could Cristina change that? Forecasters say that what is left of Cristina after it moves through Central America and dissipates could emerge in the southwestern Gulf — specifically the Bay of Campeche — later this week. At that point, the leftover energy could reorganize and form a new center of circulation.

The National Hurricane Center has already flagged the first area of interest for potential tropical development of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season in the Bay of Campeche, directly tied to Cristina's remnant moisture. Sea-surface temperatures are currently warm enough to support tropical development. However, wind shear in the areas most likely to see early-season development is working to keep any activity at bay. For instance, a stalled frontal boundary in the Gulf at the early part of June was disrupted by the high winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

In addition to low levels of wind shear and warm ocean water temperatures, tropical features need a defined area of low pressure to come to life. The only source of tropical low pressure as of now is well outside the zone of typical Atlantic development at this point of the season.

This means that the best chance of tropical development in the Atlantic basin in the near future would come from Cristina's remnants. These crossover events are rare. Fewer than two dozen storms have crossed between the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic dating back to the mid-1800s. This is because the rugged terrain across Central America tends to break up tropical weather systems as they cross over the continent. The mountains that dominate the landscape of the region naturally wring out the moisture, causing the storms to dissipate before they can reach the other basin.

Furthermore, history has shown us that it is more likely for a storm to retain its center of circulation while moving from the Atlantic into the Pacific. The northeast trade winds that mark the weather pattern over Central America are responsible for this trend.

The NHC is currently assigning a 10% chance of development to the Bay of Campeche area over the next seven days, which represents a low but non-zero risk. Should a feature with defined tropical characteristics ignite, it would most likely happen this weekend into early next week.

Even if the activity in the Gulf does not take on formal tropical characteristics that necessitate a name, the moisture associated with the system could pair with the existing moisture in the Gulf to deliver torrential downpours to portions of Southeast Texas this weekend through early next week. The expectation of higher humidity levels in the days ahead will fuel the threat of tropical moisture.

The Atlantic basin is forecast to go back to sleep for a bit should nothing come from Cristina. The long-range forecast suggests that tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa will be few and far between. Any waves that do eject off the coast will remain well to the south of the tropics. Meanwhile, storm systems carrying severe weather impacts are forecast to remain to the north of the Gulf. This will put a lid on potential tropical development in the usual hot spots.

In addition, periodic bouts of mitigating wind shear and frequent surges of dry air and Saharan dust coming from Africa will also work to suppress tropical development throughout the rest of June.

We will continue to monitor developments in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins in the days ahead.

Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.