Discarded SpaceX Rocket Set to Crash Into the Moon Tonight
A discarded SpaceX rocket stage is on track to slam into the moon early Wednesday, and the impact could kick up a towering plume of lunar dust visible through telescopes from parts of the Americas.
Falcon 9 Stage Set to Strike Near the Moon's Einstein Crater
The spent upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket is projected to hit near Einstein Crater at approximately 2:34 a.m. EDT on Aug. 5, according to an international study submitted to Geophysical Research Letters. Traveling about 5,400 mph, the nearly 9,000-pound stage will strike the sunlit eastern edge of the moon as seen from Earth.
Scientists expect the collision to vaporize the rocket stage, produce a brief flash, and carve out a crater roughly 65 to 100 feet across and about 16 feet deep. The new crater itself will be too small to see from Earth, but researchers say the resulting cloud of dust and debris rising above it may be observable for several minutes.
The study estimates the main curtain of ejected material could rise 9 to 12 miles above the surface, while a narrow central spike could climb 47 to 62 miles and the plume could spread more than 110 miles across. Computer simulations suggest sunlight reflecting off the dust could make the plume far brighter than the surrounding dark sky in the minutes after impact, though researchers caution its actual brightness remains uncertain.
Who Has the Best Shot at Seeing It
The impact flash itself may last less than a second and will occur against the moon's sunlit side, making it tough to catch. Researchers say a telescope paired with a high-speed camera offers the best chance of recording it, and it won't be visible to the naked eye.
Viewing conditions favor parts of North and South America, where the moon will be above the horizon during nighttime hours at the time of impact. Observers in the eastern and central U.S. will generally have a better view than those on the West Coast, while Hawaii and Alaska won't see it at all since the moon will be below the horizon there.
The rocket launched from Florida in January 2025 carrying Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost Mission 1 lander, which landed successfully, along with ispace's RESILIENCE lander, which crashed during its own landing attempt. The spent Falcon 9 stage was left in a high Earth orbit that crossed the moon's path.
What's Next
NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is expected to photograph the impact site before and after the collision, and ground observatories on Earth will attempt to capture the flash, plume and chemical signatures in the ejected material. Researchers say the event offers a rare opportunity to study how artificial objects create craters on the moon and how debris from similar impacts could pose hazards as more spacecraft head there.
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