Drought Relief or Flood Risk? Dolly Brings Both to the Caribbean

Although what was once Tropical Storm Dolly has weakened into a tropical rainstorm, the moisture plume coming along with the remnants could be deep enough to unleash dangerous flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Caribbean. Read on for the latest about what is happening in the tropical Atlantic as the peak of the hurricane season approaches.

Tropical Rainstorm Dolly Headed Toward the Caribbean

Tropical rainstorm Dolly is tracking toward the Caribbean, threatening heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty conditions. The former tropical storm ran into trouble on Friday morning when it reached a zone of dry air and high wind shear. While Dolly has weakened considerably, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still tracking it as a tropical rainstorm due to its hazards.

As of the last Friday update from the NHC, Dolly was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is roaring along at a fast clip, moving to the west at 24 mph.

The latest forecast models show Dolly crossing the Leeward Islands late Saturday and into Sunday. By midday Sunday, the storm will be bearing down on the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rain showers and thunderstorms are predicted to impact Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos late Sunday and Monday.

The primary impact of Dolly's remnants to this region of the Caribbean will be the drenching rainfall. This part of the Atlantic is in dire need of a soaking rain, having battled drought conditions for months. This year's weak Atlantic hurricane season has resulted in little moisture to the islands.

However, too much rain too quickly will inevitably raise the risk of life-threatening flash flooding. The steep terrain of many of these islands also translates to an elevated threat of mudslides during times of heavy rain.

The forecast is calling for widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches across the northeast and north-central islands in the Caribbean. The hardest hit areas could see up to a foot of rain by the time Dolly exits the region.

Dolly is expected to run into more dry air and wind shear as it travels to the west this weekend. In addition, the interaction with land will also serve to disrupt Dolly's center of circulation and weaken it further.

Will Dolly Impact the U.S.?

Forecasters are still unclear about what will happen to Dolly as it continues its journey. There is a good chance that what is left of the tropical rainstorm could fall apart completely by early next week.

However, should the storm survive the track through the Caribbean, it could reorganize and strengthen when it enters the waters north of Cuba. This part of the basin is likely to have lower wind shear levels along with plenty of warm water and moist air.

A regenerated Dolly could deliver impacts to the U.S. later next week. Lastly, there is a chance that what is left of the tropical rainstorm could spin off and create a separate storm. We will continue to track this system and its potential path toward the Gulf or the Atlantic coastline.

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