Drought Relief or Flood Threat? What Hurricane Rachel Means for the Southwest

All eyes are on Hurricane Rachel as it makes a turn back toward Mexico. Not only will this tropical weather event impact our neighbors to the south, but it will also have residual effects on parts of the U.S. Read on for all of the details of Rachel's projected path and likely impacts.

Hurricane Rachel Update

As of the Tuesday afternoon update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Rachel was a Category 1 storm packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The storm is spinning roughly 649 miles west-southwest of the southern edge of Baja California Sur, Mexico. While Rachel is currently moving to the west, it is forecast to take a turn back to Mexico later this week.

A southward dip in the jet stream is predicted to send Rachel toward northwestern Mexico, spreading its moisture as far as the southwestern corner of the U.S. Not only will this movement bring down the toasty temperatures that have been in place over much of the western U.S., but it will direct heavy rain into the drought-stricken states of Arizona and Utah by early next week.

Although much of the Southwest could use the precipitation, this is the same general part of the country that experienced flash flooding at the end of September as Polo's remnants surged up from Mexico. Rachel is not expected to be as powerful as Polo; however, forecasters are warning this latest storm will still bring significant amounts of moisture.

In addition to the threat of flooding across parts of Arizona and Utah, the steady stream of precipitation will also support the development of mudslides across the rocky terrain. Areas that are still drying out from Polo's impacts will be the most vulnerable. Polo combined with the typical rain from the North American monsoon season to dump two to seven times the historical average of moisture for September across many communities in the Desert Southwest.

Rachel's Predicted Impacts to the U.S.

How much rain should you expect? The latest forecast models are calling for a general 1 to 4 inches of rain in a zone from northwestern Mexico and into Arizona and Utah. Isolated pockets of 4 to 8 inches are possible within this zone.

The line of moisture is expected to creep as far north as the Great Basin and the Colorado River watershed. This is a welcome development for Lakes Powell and Mead, two major reservoirs that saw water levels plummet to historic lows over the dry summer.

While the rain from Rachel is not expected to hit the U.S. until early next week, the large swells spreading outward from the storm's center have already begun to impact the coastline of Mexico. These massive swells could amplify the beach erosion and coastal flooding that have marked the last few months in Southern California.
 
A strong El Niño is driving the hyperactive Pacific hurricane season that has already generated 20 named storms. Ten of these storms went on to become hurricanes, with eight of these reaching Category 3 or higher.

There is no rest for the weary in this basin. Forecasters with the NHC are monitoring a new rainstorm that has formed off the coast of southern Mexico. This storm has a high chance of intensifying into a major hurricane in the next few days, taking on the name of Simon. Once again, it will be western Mexico in the path of this feature's heavy rain, high winds, and dangerous storm surge.

And yet another zone of low pressure behind what is likely to become Simon is forecast to form early next week south of Guatemala. Stay tuned as we monitor all of these happenings in the Eastern Pacific.

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