El Niño Expected to Bring a Wetter October to the South and East

The rainy weather pattern that has socked in the southern U.S. is set to continue through the month, with the long-range forecast calling for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and beyond. What about the rest of the October outlook? Read on for all that you need to know as the new month kicks off.

Strengthening El Niño Will Drive Weather in October

A rapidly intensifying El Niño climate phase will drive much of the weather around the country this month. The most pronounced impacts will be the expectation of a soggy stretch of weeks for the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, the mid-Atlantic, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and the Upper Midwest will see conditions that trend drier than normal throughout October.

Temperatures in the southern half of the country will hover just slightly below average, largely due to the anticipation of more cloud cover along with the rain. Conversely, the mercury is expected to inch up higher than normal across the Rockies and the northern Plains.

The month got started on a toasty note across the mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and parts of the South, with temperatures jumping to about 10 to 15 degrees above the historical average. The heat will peak on Friday in places such as New York City and Philadelphia as temperatures climb into the mid-80s. More seasonable temperatures will make their way back to this corner of the country by the start of the weekend.

The biggest weather story in the short term will be the persistent waves of tropical moisture that continue to impact the central U.S. This line of moisture will push to the east as the weekend progresses, translating to a soggy few days for the Southeast and the Gulf Coast.

Wet Pattern Forecast to Hang On Across the South

As meteorologists have been warning for months, the building El Niño will amplify the moisture train across the South this month and heading into the winter. Some of the most notable El Niño features will emerge this fall, coinciding with the Pacific jet stream amping up and shifting farther to the south. As this jet stream tracks farther south, it will bring along moisture from the Pacific and take it across the West Coast and into the southern U.S. Think of the jet stream as a giant conveyor belt that directs storms along its fluid path.

The latest long-range forecast models indicate that the unseasonably rainy weather will linger in a zone from the Gulf Coast and the Southeast to the north into the mid-Atlantic, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. A ridge of high pressure will set up shop in the Northwest, working to block moisture from entering the Rockies, the northern Plains, and the Upper Midwest with as much regularity.

This area of high pressure will also serve to keep temperatures elevated, helping to stave off winter for a bit longer in the parts of the nation that are usually first to see the arrival of the cold temperatures. It will be an opposite situation in the Southeast and the Gulf Coast, where the cloud cover and rain will bring temperatures down a bit.

Keep in mind that these are just long-range generalizations. There will certainly be variances built into how the weather actually unfolds. Be sure to stick with us for the latest forecast information as the month of transitional weather marches on.

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