El Niño Helps Bring 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season to an Unusually Quiet End
Is the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season really over? The season is ending on a whimper thanks to the strengthening El Niño putting a lid on potential tropical activity.
El Niño Drivers Abnormally Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
The influence of El Niño continues to suppress tropical weather activity in the Atlantic. The 2026 season has only seen 10 named storms. Of those named storms, only one went on to become a hurricane. And that development did not happen until October, shattering a 121-year-old record for the latest first hurricane of the season.
With three weeks left in the official season, most meteorologists believe that the action has wrapped up for the year. Although late-season tropical storms can pop up in November, the current atmospheric conditions do not suggest that this will happen.
The 2026 season will go down in the record books for the lack of activity. With only 10 named storms, this year came in with the fewest since 2015. This year also marks the first time since 1925 that only one hurricane roamed the basin. This happened in early October when Isaias made landfall on the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm.
Forecasters were continually adjusting their hurricane predictions downward as the season progressed. The early-season forecast was calling for 11 to 16 named storms. The onset of a powerful El Niño worked to knock that total down.
El Niño typically increases the volume and strength of wind shear in the Atlantic. This wind shear then works to break apart developing storms and stymie their growth, naturally leading to less activity.
Notable Tropical Weather Events in 2026
The season kicked off in mid-June when Tropical Storm Arthur came ashore near Matagorda Bay, Texas. Despite remaining a tropical storm, Arthur's moisture triggered widespread flooding across the Gulf Coast, creating up to $6 billion in total damages and economic loss.
July was a busy month when Tropical Storm Bertha managed to make two landfalls along the Gulf Coast in both Louisiana and Texas. Like Arthur, Bertha was responsible for widespread flooding and beach erosion.
After a brief respite, the tropics fired up again in late August with Cristobal and Dolly churning out to sea. Tropical Storm Edouard was next up, making landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana. The moisture associated with Edouard prompted several flash flood emergencies in the southeastern corner of Texas.
The most notable storyline of this season was undoubtedly how long it took for the first, and only, hurricane to spring to life. Isaias reached hurricane strength on October 8. The feature was able to grow in a zone of low wind shear in the Gulf before peaking as a major Category 3 strength event packing maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.
Several communities in Okaloosa County in Florida were forced to evacuate as Isaias approached this stretch of the Emerald Coast. A top wind gust of 117 mph was notched at Oriole Beach as the storm came ashore in the late evening hours. Storm surge hit 5.51 feet in the popular tourist destination of Panama City Beach. Rainfall reached as high as 8 inches across the Panhandle region.
Isaias was blamed for as many as eight fatalities due to indirect storm impacts. The storm also produced over 20 tornadoes as it moved farther inland, contributing to roughly $16 to $20 billion in total damage and economic loss.
A former nor'easter took on defined tropical characteristics on October 21 as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. This feature evolved into Subtropical Storm Josephine before brushing by Atlantic Canada.
While El Niño has put an end to tropical weather in the Atlantic, the same cannot be said about the Pacific. The central and eastern portions of this basin have produced 24 named storms this season, including 13 hurricanes. Unlike the Atlantic, it is still possible that another storm or two could form in this part of the world's oceans before the season comes to an end on November 30.
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