Election Day Forecast: Where Voters May Need an Umbrella on Nov. 3

While early voting is in full swing across much of the U.S., millions of Americans will wait until Election Day to cast their vote in the crucial midterm elections. Here is an early look at the weather forecast for Tuesday, November 3.

Millions of Americans Will Need a Raincoat Heading Out to Vote on Tuesday

Rain and severe weather could complicate in-person voting for a large swath of the central and eastern U.S. An active Pacific storm track over the next several days will usher in a soggy pattern as Election Day approaches. The chance of rain is now in the forecast for Tuesday for portions of the Southwest, the central U.S., and up into the Northeast. Severe weather could be a major disruptor for parts of the Mississippi Valley.

The first wave of moisture that will move from west to east across the nation beginning this weekend is associated with what is left of Vance, a former hurricane that roamed the Eastern Pacific. This plume of tropical moisture will expand to the northeast from Texas beginning this weekend and lasting into Election Day.

The rain showers and thunderstorms from Vance's remnants will become less widespread as they creep to the northeast and into the Ohio Valley. However, spotty rain showers are still a possibility on Tuesday for a large swath of the coastal mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and New England. Voters in major urban areas such as Boston, Philadelphia, and New York City may want to bring an umbrella if they have to wait outside the polls.

The soggy conditions expected for the Southeast this weekend are forecast to dissipate by Tuesday, leaving places such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, and Miami in the clear from inclement conditions.

This will not be the case across the nation's heartland. Lingering rain showers could impact voters waiting outdoors across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio. The rain in the central U.S. will be hit and miss, meaning some areas will see several hours of rain while others may only be dealing with a passing shower or two. Voters in these areas will want to monitor the hourly forecast and plan accordingly.

Severe Weather Could Deter Voters in the Southern U.S.

Moving to the south, thunderstorms could cause issues for voters heading out in a zone from the Texas and Louisiana coasts to the north into Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. The threat of severe weather will increase across the southern and central Plains beginning late Monday. 

This line of storms is currently forecast to reach the middle and lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Cities in the line of fire for disruptive impacts on Election Day include New Orleans, Houston, and Nashville.

A surge of warm and humid air coming up from the Gulf will fuel these storms. While it is still too early to worry, these storms could be strong enough to trigger localized power outages heading into Tuesday morning. Torrential rain could also cause street flooding. Lastly, you cannot rule out the chance of isolated tornadic activity. This area of storms is shaping up to be the biggest area of concern for weather as Americans head out to cast their vote.

Moving to the west, the rain coming along with what is left of Olana near Hawaii is predicted to reach Southern California and the Southwest by this weekend. Some of this leftover moisture could feed into a developing atmospheric river that douses the interior West early in the week before moving into the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley.

Lastly, a surge of moisture from the Pacific will meet up with colder air over the interior West on Sunday, resulting in accumulating snow into Tuesday. The major cities along the West Coast should be free of any major hazards on Election Day. For instance, it should be smooth sailing for voters in Seattle, Portland, and Los Angeles. The exception will be the chance of light rain showers in San Francisco.

We will continue to update the Election Day forecast as the date approaches.

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