Explosive Fire Conditions on the Way for the Interior West

The atmosphere will be ripe for explosive wildfire development by the end of the week across much of the interior West. Here is a closer look at the potential zone of concern as the peak of wildfire season approaches.

Extreme Wildfire Conditions in the Forecast for the Interior West

Forecasters are warning that extreme wildfire conditions will unfold in the latter part of the week across a large swath of the western U.S. The upcoming weather pattern will amplify the existing fires already burning through this corner of the country.

The greatest concentration of wildfire activity in recent days has been over the Intermountain West and the Desert Southwest. A long stretch of unseasonably hot temperatures, a lack of moisture, and breezy conditions have contributed to the ignition and spread of multiple infernos.

As of June 23, the U.S. has seen 34,262 wildfires, responsible for the burning of 2.7 million acres, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The number of fires and acres burned is now trending over the recent 10-year average.

Utah has been ground zero for new fire development this week. As of the Wednesday afternoon update from Utah Fire Info, the Cottonwood Fire has scorched over 61,00 acres and is 0% contained. The Iron Fire has burned at least 31,000 acres and is less than 10% contained.

While scattered rain showers late Wednesday and into Thursday may lend an assist for fire crews on the ground, the lightning strikes accompanying some of the storms could also spark new fires. The vegetation over Utah is extremely parched following the dry winter in the Beehive State. The dry terrain is inherently more susceptible to the dangers of lightning.

More rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast for the Southwest on Thursday. While this rain can be beneficial, the dry lightning will pose its own set of risks, making the upcoming forecast a double-edged sword. Salt Lake City will see just a slight chance of rain or storms on Thursday and into the overnight hours. While any bit of moisture helps fire crews, this magnitude of rain is not likely to put a dent in the efforts to contain the fires.

The weather forecast for the end of the week is calling for increasing temperatures and wind, ingredients known to exacerbate the threat of wildfires. Widespread highs in the 90s will be the story for the bulk of the interior West beginning Friday. For instance, Salt Lake City will peak with a high of 95 degrees to close out the work week, paired with winds out of the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Gusty winds will set off erratic fire behavior in the ongoing blazes across Nevada, California, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and into parts of the High Plains. The state of Utah is expected to be under a very high to extreme wildfire risk on both Friday and Saturday.

Even the smallest brushfire can intensify into a massive firestorm in a matter of hours when the winds pick up speed. The expectation of several days of windy conditions is prompting local officials to urge residents to have an evacuation plan ready if they live in areas vulnerable to wildfires.

Areas that escape the chance of fires may still experience the hazardous impacts of the resulting smoke. This smoke from the fires currently raging in the Great Basin is forecast to drift to the east across the Rockies, affecting the populated area along Colorado's Front Range by the weekend.

Should the wildfire activity increase further, the high-level smoke could travel thousands of miles into the eastern half of the U.S. by next week. This will be something to keep an eye on if you have outdoor plans ahead of the long holiday weekend.

Cooler Air Headed to the Interior West

There is a silver lining to the forecast. Cooler air is expected to creep into the Intermountain West by the beginning of next week. This air is part of the same weather pattern bringing cooler temperatures and rain to the Pacific Northwest this weekend, breaking the heat wave that enveloped the region earlier in the week. The batch of unseasonably cool temperatures and accompanying rain will also ignite a fresh wave of potential thunderstorms to the interior West, once again making it a mixed blessing.

Going back to Salt Lake City, the metro area will see temperatures plummet over the weekend, topping out in the low 70s for highs on Sunday and Monday. The cooler air will arrive earlier in Boise. The capital city of Idaho is forecast to see the temperature tumble from a high in the low 90s on Thursday to readings that struggle to break the 70-degree mark on Friday. It will be even cooler over the weekend with highs that hover in the mid 60s.

Looking at the long-term forecast, heat is expected to return to the region by the Fourth of July weekend. Stay tuned as we continue to fine-tune the holiday forecast in the coming week.

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