Fall Is Coming, But Summer Refuses to Take the Hint

The record-breaking hot summer has made many Americans long for the chill of fall. Will the start of pumpkin season be delayed? Read on for the details of the long-range fall forecast.

Summer to Slow to Depart in Much of the Country

The beginning of fall is just a few weeks away; however, some people may be waiting a bit longer for the cooler temperatures to arrive. A potent El Niño phase will be in the driver's seat heading into the fall months. This will translate to lingering summer weather for much of the country.

Summer will be particularly slow to depart in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, areas where above-average temperatures will combine with high humidity to keep the summer conditions around for longer. The north-central Plains, Great Lakes, and northeastern U.S. are forecast to see warm air persist until October when the first waves of chilly air from Canada start to make their way down.

Deepening drought conditions will amplify the unseasonable warmth. The lingering heat and the lack of moisture will naturally lead to a higher risk of wildfires and the resulting smoky skies.

The silver lining of the dry and warm weather will be a more vibrant fall foliage season. Sunny days and cool nights are more likely to make the colors pop across the Northeast and the Midwest.

The beginning of the fall season also marks the peak of tropical weather. Forecasters warn that the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean are facing a higher-than-average threat of tropical weather impacts in September and the first half of October. This threat will spread up the Atlantic coastline into southern New England, bringing the chance of heavy rain, rough seas, and gusty winds.

Where to Expect Severe Weather This Fall

The focal point of severe weather impacts will gradually shift to the south as temperatures drop in the northern half of the country. This will bring the bulk of the stormy conditions into the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, and the Tennessee Valley. This is a typical weather change that unfolds this time of the year. However, the influence of El Niño will amplify the thunderstorm activity and flooding threat during the back half of the fall season as the storm train intensifies across the southern U.S.

The heightened storm activity across the central and eastern U.S. over the last several weeks has helped to reduce the severity of the drought. More rain expected in the East this fall will further help the cause. The trailing end of the monsoon season will spell more moisture for Arizona, Southern California, and southern Nevada. Meanwhile, the atmospheric river train will begin to show signs of life across much of California.

When to Expect the First Snowflakes

As is typical, the highest terrain of the Rockies in Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming will be the first part of the country to see the flakes fly. These regions should be ready for snow by the end of September or beginning of October. Snow is forecast to hold back for longer across the Washington and Oregon Cascades thanks to the unseasonably warm temperatures.

The start of November will usher in increasing chances of snow in the Colorado Rockies and throughout the mountains of Utah and New Mexico. There is also the possibility of early-season snow in the Great Lakes and the Northeast.

Lastly, early intrusions of cold air diving down from Canada will set in motion the lake-effect snow machine for the region downwind of the Great Lakes beginning in November.

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