Florida Faces a Week of Daily Flooding Rain, But Not a Tropical Storm
It has already been a soggy week in Florida, with more rain on the way. Here is a look at when and where to expect the tropical downpours.
Florida Socked In With Rain
The wet and windy weather pattern will continue over the Florida peninsula for the next several days. The inclement conditions are a continuation of what the region experienced over the weekend when heavy rain prompted several flood alerts.
The most potent bands of rain may dump over 1 or 2 inches per hour at times on Wednesday. The sprawling high-pressure heat dome tethered to the north will unleash gusty winds across Florida and elsewhere.
The storms are forecast to strengthen on Thursday as a low-pressure system circulating in the mid-level of the atmosphere will move to the west from the Atlantic and across Florida. The system will eventually eject out into the Gulf, but not before unleashing another round of heavy rain across the Sunshine State.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) had been watching this low earlier in the week for potential tropical development. However, those odds have dropped as the low is now predicted to become cut off from the flow of moisture, limiting the formation of formal characteristics.
Where the Low Settles Will Influence Rain Totals
The timing of the low arriving in Florida will determine the severity of the rainfall. A low that gets stuck over the Gulf can result in widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. This type of system is initially sustained by temperature gradients aloft, beginning as a cold-core low. This means that it does not feed on the warm Gulf waters as a classic warm-core system would.
Stalled cut-off lows are distinguished by their ability to spark gusty storms. However, a tropical system is only born if this disturbance stalls out near a zone of stationary warm water for several days.
The latest forecast models indicate that this low will now stall near Florida rather than pushing out fully into the Gulf. As such, it will never hover over the warm ocean waters long enough to develop tropical characteristics and evolve into a named feature.
These types of stalled lows are more difficult to forecast. While there is the possibility of strong thunderstorms as the cold air aloft clashes with the warmer air near the ground, there is also the chance that dry air wrapping around the core of the system will put a lid on the development of widespread storms. The most likely impacts of the storm cells include gusty winds and frequent lightning.
The long-range forecast is calling for the threat of rain to linger through the weekend. The low will eventually move into the Gulf, sending the bulk of the rain across the Gulf Coast.
South Florida will be in line for the heaviest rainfall totals by the time that the system wraps up this weekend. Cities such as Naples and Miami should prepare for 3 to 5 inches of rain over the course of the multi-day event.
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