Context:

A report from Policy Exchange highlights the deteriorating U.S.-Ireland relationship, warning that Ireland's status as a favored ally faces unprecedented scrutiny under the Trump administration. Factors contributing to this shift include Ireland's minimal defense spending, reliance on favorable tax policies, and diverging foreign policy stances, particularly regarding Israel and China. The election of leftist Catherine Connolly as president further exacerbates concerns, with her statements underscoring a leftward drift. The report serves as a cautionary tale for the U.K., urging alignment with U.S. priorities to avoid a similar diplomatic isolation, emphasizing that historical ties alone are insufficient for maintaining a strong partnership with Washington.

Dive Deeper:

• Ireland currently spends only 0.2% of its GDP on defense, the lowest in Europe, which has frustrated U.S. officials who expect more commitment from allies.

• The report notes that Ireland benefits from a $50 billion trade surplus with the U.S., predominantly due to favorable tax conditions for American tech and pharmaceutical firms.

• Since 2005, Ireland's voting alignment with U.S. positions at the United Nations has plummeted to 51%, with only 17% alignment on issues related to Israel, reflecting a significant diplomatic rift.

• Catherine Connolly's election as president is seen as a signal of a leftward political shift in Ireland, with her past comments criticizing U.S., French, and U.K. policies contributing to concerns over Ireland's reliability as an ally.

• The report warns the U.K. could face similar diplomatic challenges if it strays from U.S. priorities, suggesting that current gestures like recognizing Palestinian statehood could jeopardize goodwill.

• Policy Exchange emphasizes the importance of adapting to a more transactional U.S. foreign policy where divergences could damage longstanding alliances.

• Ultimately, the report asserts that as the U.S. demands greater burden sharing and trade fairness, Ireland's previously strong ties with Washington may weaken, serving as a warning to other allies like Britain.