Gulf Tropical Threat Could Bring Significant Flooding to the Southeast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a storm that is coming together in the southwestern Gulf. Could this system become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season? This is what you need to know.

Zone of Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Could Develop Into Next Named Storm

Forecasters have identified a zone in the Gulf that has a high chance of developing into a major tropical weather maker. Even in the absence of formal development, the system is forecast to come ashore along the central Gulf Coast by this weekend. The moisture associated with this disturbance will deliver heavy rain and an elevated threat of flooding across much of the Southeast.

The southeastern U.S. has already been dealing with heavy rain, thanks to a stalled front that has been anchored over the region. Any tropical moisture will amplify this flooding threat.

The next name on the list for the Atlantic this year is Isaias.

The cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms is currently churning in the Bay of Campeche off the coast of Mexico. Water temperatures are hovering in the 80s, providing fuel for a storm to develop in the days ahead. Hurricane experts will also be watching wind shear in this zone.

The latest forecast models indicate that the feature will be strong enough to overcome the current levels of wind shear. At the very least, it is likely that a tropical rainstorm will come out of this area of concern. As of late Monday, there is only about a 15% chance that the system develops into a hurricane.

The steering winds over this part of the Gulf are expected to pair with a dip in the jet stream to send the disturbance to the north-northeast as the week progresses. This track would result in a landfall in the U.S. somewhere along the central Gulf Coast this weekend.

There is also an outside chance that the jet stream does not pick up the storm in time. This would result in the storm moving back toward Mexico. A landfall in Texas would be particularly abnormal, as a named storm has never come ashore in the Lone Star State in October, November, or December during an El Niño year.

Forecasters believe that the track and projected strength of this storm will become more precise once a center of circulation forms.

Could This System Break the Atlantic Out of Its Slump?

One of the biggest weather stories of the year will undoubtedly be the exceptionally quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic. While the Eastern Pacific has been popping off over the last several months, it has been abnormally calm in the Atlantic as El Niño intensifies and puts a lid on tropical activity.

A lack of action in the Atlantic is normal when El Niño is driving the weather. This warm phase of a climate pattern cycle in the tropical Pacific is forecast to become one of the strongest on record.

The Atlantic has only generated 8 named features this season; however, none of them have gone on to become hurricanes. For context, this basin typically produces 11 named storms by the beginning of October, including five hurricanes and two storms of Category 3 or higher.  

Although it is still too early to predict with precision, the Gulf Coast is shaping up to see rainfall of 1 to 4 inches out of this event. This moisture would be in addition to what is expected to fall over the course of the week.

The stalled front over northern Florida has already paved the way for several inches of rain to fall across portions of the upper Texas coast to the east into Florida over the last few days. There is now concern that any additional precipitation will exacerbate the flooding along streams, rivers, and bayous.

While some areas may experience minor to moderate flooding, other parts of this region could use the drought-busting rain.

We will continue to monitor what is happening in the Gulf and how it may impact the U.S. in the days ahead.

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