Hawaii and Southern California's Elevated Hurricane Risk Is Real This Year

Climatologists sounded the alarm months ago, warning that the 2026 Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane seasons could be a real doozy. This forecast is coming to fruition as several named storms have already formed. Here is a look at what is causing this uptick in tropical weather activity and what parts of the basin should prepare for more impacts.

Eastern Pacific Remains on Heightened Alert for Tropical Weather

A strengthening El Niño is partnering with exceptionally warm ocean waters to boost tropical activity across the eastern and central portions of the Pacific. Both of these areas of the Pacific were forecast to see a higher than usual number of named storms, and those predictions are proving to be accurate. 

For instance, the basin has already seen seven named storms. Most recently, Hurricane Genevieve exploded into a monster Category 5 storm, becoming the first storm of this intensity this season.

It is not unusual for a potent El Niño phase to lead to a greater amount of action in the tropical Pacific. This is largely because this climate phase tends to suppress the disruptive wind shear that typically breaks storms apart. The addition of the unusually warm ocean waters can help storms to intensify more quickly and last longer. This added boost also means that storms are more likely to migrate north toward Baja California and Southern California.

Forecasters are holding to their predictions that the far edge of Southern California could see more tropical moisture as the season progresses. The rest of this part of the Golden State is under an elevated threat of flooding rainfall as remnants of the tropical activity veers in this direction. The same can be said about the Desert Southwest, as tropical systems hundreds of miles out to sea can direct heavy rain into Arizona and New Mexico.

Hawaii will continue to be under an above-average risk of tropical impacts ranging from high winds, flooding rain, and storm surge. Water temperatures to the south and the east of the island chain are trending well above average, which will help to support tropical storms that head in this direction.

Lastly, Mexico will also need to remain vigilant about an increased risk of direct impacts for much of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, and Guerrero. The sizzling waters off the coast of Mexico mean that storms are more likely to undergo the process of rapid intensification just before making landfall, giving people little time to evacuate.

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