Historic Drop in U.S. Murder Rate in 2025: A Look at the Numbers and Trends
According to the Council on Criminal Justice analysis that was recently published, the murder rate in the United States dropped dramatically in 2025. Per the report, homicides declined by 20% compared to 2024, which marks the largest single-year decline that the group has ever recorded.
A deeper look at the numbers shows that the homicide rate across 35 major cities was 21% lower in 2025 than in 2024, translating to roughly 922 fewer murder victims in those areas alone. This decline contributed to what may be the lowest murder rate seen in the U.S. since the early 1900s, reversing much of the uptick in violent crime experienced around the pandemic and its aftermath.
The US murder rate in 2025 wasn’t the only violent crime to see a drastic decline. Data from the Council on Criminal Justice analysis also shows that 9 of the 13 crime categories tracked also decreased. Carjackings plummeted by more than 40% in some areas while robbery and aggravated assaults also fell. Shoplifting, which is considered a nonviolent crime, also saw a decline.
In a time when good news often feels hard to find, take a deeper dive into this study to see what it could mean for the future of the US, what experts are saying, and how it could impact you.
A Deeper Look at the Numbers
The US homicide rate decline wasn’t limited to a single region. For example, Denver reported a drop of 41%, which marked one of the steepest drops of any major city. However, other metropolitan areas, including Washington D.C. and Omaha, saw drops of 40% or higher. These local trends mirror the national picture of falling fatal violence in 2025.
While the news is largely positive, it’s worth noting that not every area experienced a decline. Little Rock, Arkansas, was an outlier among the reported cities, posting an increase in homicides, and some cities experienced more modest changes or flat trends in certain violent crime categories.
How This Compares With Long-Term Patterns
The decline in homicide and certain other violent crimes didn’t start in 2025. National crime data collected by various researchers and crime analysts show that homicide rates were declining through 2023, following a sharp increase in 2020. Homicide rates also declined from the early 2000s until the late 2010s, before spiking during what is now known as the pandemic era. A separate analysis of more comprehensive FBI data suggests that the murder rate overall may reach levels not seen since modern records began in 1960.
The latest data aligns with other long-term crime trends that have been documented over the last 10 years. Violent crimes, including homicides, had been on a slow decline before the pandemic and have now resumed that downward pattern. These pieces of data point to broader societal shifts instead of short-lived fluctuations in violent crime.
Why Crime Rates May Be Falling
A wide range of variables impact crime rates, ranging from economic factors to policing strategies. Shifts in societal behavior are virtually impossible to track, yet they’re still among the most important aspects that researchers must consider. This makes it difficult to pin down exactly why violent crime rates are dropping. This is why researchers caution against attributing the 2025 decline to any single policy or political strategy.
Some analysts characterize the 2025 figures as a normalization of crime levels following pandemic-related disruption. After the widespread disruptions to daily life and public safety infrastructure in 2020, many cities saw drastic increases in violent crime. However, now that there is more distance between society and the days of stay-at-home orders, mask mandates, and other stressors, the numbers seem to be returning to a more normalized level.
Officials from both sides of America’s political aisle have claimed credit for the news, pointing to different strategies, ranging from community-based prevention programs to increased police presence and federal support for law enforcement officers. Still, experts emphasize that the widespread decline in violent crime likely points to a combination of these policies more than the effect of any single initiative.
What This Means for Public Safety
A significant drop in the homicide rate is certainly good news, but officials warn against complacency. Year-to-year crime trends can be volatile, and gains can stall or reverse if underlying social and economic conditions go unaddressed. Factors including poverty, housing instability, access to firearms, mental health care, and police resources impact outcomes in ways that aren’t always immediately visible in reports. Efforts to sustain reductions in homicide and violent crime often focus on broader community investment, prevention strategies, and collaborative approaches between law enforcement and social services to address root causes.
For individuals and communities, the decline in murders provides a chance to evaluate what’s working and reassess local priorities. With homicide rates near levels not seen in more than a century and declines in other serious offenses, 2025 may mark a turning point in how society functions in the post-pandemic era.
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