Houston’s Hot Start Gets the Nikola Jokić Treatment
Houston doesn’t need to try and shut down Nikola Jokić to beat Denver. Honestly, that sounds like a pretty miserable way to spend a Monday anyway.
The Rockets just need to make him work, finish defensive possessions, and stop giving him easy chances. When Denver visits Houston on Monday, those details could matter more than whichever star ends up leading the game in scoring.
The Rockets have been outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per 100 possessions this season, compared with Denver’s 0.1. It’s still early, but Houston’s looked like the far more convincing team so far.
It's already bad enough that Denver has a center who can run an offense like a point guard. Then there's Jamal Murray, his partner in making defenders regret their career choices. Houston has Kevin Durant’s shot-making, Alperen Sengün’s scoring and passing inside, and Amen Thompson making life miserable for people on the perimeter. Fred VanVleet has finally given the Rockets an experienced point guard again after missing last season.
Both Denver and Houston also lost in the first round last spring. There’s enough talent here to talk about a real run in the West. There’s also a pretty clear reason both teams still have something to prove.
The fun starts with how Houston deals with Denver’s two-man game. Murray's averaging 25.4 points and shooting 50.9% from three so far. You can’t let him get comfortable pull-ups and pretend Jokić is the only problem you have to solve.
But send two defenders at Murray and suddenly Jokić has the ball with an advantage. Bring another defender over to help, and Aaron Gordon can cut right behind him. Houston’s challenge is to keep pressure on the ball without turning every possession into a full-blown scramble.
Sengün gives the Rockets a way to make Denver work, too. He's averaging 22.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.1 assists through his first seven games. Denver has to account for his passing as well as his work around the basket, especially with Durant waiting for any opening.
We’ve already seen how good this matchup can be. Last December, Jokić finished with 39 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists. Denver still needed overtime to win because Sengün had 33, 10, and 10. He doesn’t need to copy Jokić. He just needs to keep making him work on defense.
The less glamorous stuff could decide Monday, though.
After Houston committed 22 turnovers in Wednesday’s loss to Minnesota, giving up 33 points off those mistakes, Ime Udoka said:
The turnovers were the story tonight, throughout the whole game.
That’s way too many empty possessions when you’ve got this much talent. VanVleet’s return should help Houston get into their offense, but this can’t all fall on the point guard. Durant and Sengün need to get the ball early enough to make a second read.
So, who wins? I’m taking Houston at home. The Rockets’ stronger start gives them the edge, as long as they take care of the ball. A win built on organized offense and a few late stops would make Houston’s hot start feel a little more real.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com.
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