How Climate Change Is Making Your Halloween Chocolate More Expensive

Cacao farmers have been forced to adapt to a changing climate, and shoppers are feeling the effects. Despite the efforts to avoid passing the increase onto consumers, many Halloween shoppers have seen noticeably higher prices on chocolate this year. Here is a look at how climate change is contributing to the crisis facing cacao bean growers.

Climate Change Puts Cacao Crops in Danger

The impacts of climate change continue to threaten the production of cacao. This threat is the greatest in West Africa, a corner of the globe that generates approximately 70% of the world's cacao supply. Regularly changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures have been impacting cacao crops in recent years. Not only is global warming impacting both the quality and quantity of cacao beans, but it is also sending prices of chocolate soaring.

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) commodities price monitoring service, cocoa prices increased 136% between July 2022 and February 2024. These prices peaked in late 2024 before beginning to come down again. While the prices have since stabilized, the impacts of climate change continue to make the cost of chocolate a volatile index.

A 2025 analysis by researchers at the nonprofit Climate Central group detailed how climate change is sending the mercury above the optimal range for the growth of cultivation of cacao trees in West Africa. The scientists involved in the study noted that this is the first analysis that specifically tried to put a precise number on how much humans and the effects of climate change are driving cacao production in this region.

Countries in West Africa have historically led the way in cacao production. The region generated about 3.48 million metric tons of cacao beans during the 2022 - 2023 season. This production is important to the world's chocolate industry, as well as a vital part of the economy in this part of Africa.

For example, the cacao industry in Ghana employs roughly 3.2 million farmers and workers. For context, this is over 10% of the nation's total population. Climate change is now threatening the livelihoods of these cacao farmers.

Cacao trees thrive in areas located within 10 degrees north and south of the equator. This part of the planet is where the climate has historically provided the most ideal conditions for these crops to take root and thrive.

The raw and unprocessed form of cacao beans has two key harvest periods in West Africa. The main crop harvest season is from September to March, while the mid-crop season happens from May to August. It takes approximately five to six months for the pods to reach maturity after the flowering stage. These pods are harvested by hand and broken in half to get the seeds. The natural fermentation and drying processes develop the deep flavors that are associated with chocolate.

How Temperatures Impact the Health of Cacao Beans

Cacao bean farmers know that the ideal temperature range for growth is up to 89.6 degrees. However, a warming planet has meant that there are now more days with temperatures that eclipse this ideal threshold.

The scientists at Climate Central analyzed temperature data from 44 cacao-producing areas scattered throughout West Africa. The areas examined included Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. What they found was alarming. Over the last 10 years, roughly two-thirds of the cacao-growing region experienced a jump of at least six additional weeks' worth of days every year that were hotter than what is considered to be an ideal temperature for the crops. More alarming is that one-third of the areas saw at least eight additional weeks' worth of this extreme heat.

Extreme heat impacts cacao production in various ways. The plants responsible for housing the seeds need stable temperatures in order to undergo the process of photosynthesis. An excess of hot days can negatively impact this biological process, resulting in smaller and rotting plant pods and dead flowers.

In addition to the sensitivities to extreme heat, cacao trees are also vulnerable to rainfall patterns. The trees are the most fruitful in zones with about 60 to 80 inches of rain annually. According to the International Cocoa Organization, trees also thrive when dry spells do not exceed three months. Little rain in December resulted in a slower start to the photosynthesis process, translating into fewer flowers and a greater concentration of underdeveloped beans.

The bottom line is that the erratic rainfall patterns blamed on climate change are leaving farmers in a bind. This inherently means lower harvest yields and higher prices passed on to consumers.

The good news is that cacao farmers are slowly beginning to adapt to the unpredictable weather conditions. For example, some farmers are planting taller trees between the cacao plants in an effort to encourage healthier soil and plentiful moisture. The additional trees also provide crucial shade from the excessive heat for the vulnerable cacao plants. Creative practices like this will be even more necessary going forward on a warmer planet.

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