How Hurricane Season Changes in October

September marks the peak month of tropical weather activity in the Atlantic basin. While the number of storms typically drops as October progresses, that does not mean that the region is in the clear. The month of October is still capable of producing dangerous hurricanes. Here is a look at some of the distinguishing factors of October tropical weather, as well as some of the most notable storms that have popped up over this time period.

What to Expect in the Tropics in October

The month of October is a time of transition for the Atlantic basin. This is the time of the hurricane season when you can expect activity to begin to taper off as the ocean waters become increasingly cooler. However, that does not mean that this is the month to let your guard down.

On average, there are fewer storms in October when compared to September. For example, the number of named storms and hurricanes that come to life in October is less than half of the number that form in September. This data goes back to the satellite era, beginning in 1966.

Despite the noticeable downward trend in tropical activity, there are still plenty of storms that form in October. The tenth month of the year typically produces two to three named storms. Of these tropical storms, one to two go on to become hurricanes.

One major change in activity in October compared to August and September is the prime area of development. As the sea-surface temperatures drop in the eastern Atlantic, you are less likely to see development in the zone from Africa to the Lesser Antilles. The northwestern corner of the Gulf is also less likely to fuel development.

In addition to the cooler waters, an increase in wind shear also contributes to more hostile conditions in these parts of the Atlantic. These disruptive winds tend to break apart storms as they struggle to gain intensity.

Lastly, the number of tropical waves ejecting off the coast of Africa decreases as the fall season progresses. These waves are often the seeds of development for new storms. Without the steady stream of them marching across the Atlantic, the number of named features naturally decreases.

According to records from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there is a limited number of storms that form in the area east of the Lesser Antilles. The paths that these storms take, if they survive the trip through the Atlantic, tend to track closer to Florida than toward Texas.

History of Notorious October Storms

The impacts of climate change have inevitably led to an increase in October tropical weather events. Although the threat is not as high as in September, October has produced its fair share of deadly hurricanes.

Most recently, Hurricane Milton roared into Southwest Florida as a Category 3 storm. This hurricane was blamed for 45 fatalities and over $34 billion in economic damage. 42 of the deaths happened in the U.S., while Mexico saw the remaining three.

Going back to the monster hurricane season of 2020, Louisiana and the Southeast were in the bullseye of Delta and Zeta in October. This record-breaking season was so active that the list of predetermined names was exhausted, forcing the naming system to go to the Greek alphabet.

In October of 2018, Hurricane Michael became one of just four Category 5 storms to make landfall in the U.S. mainland throughout recorded history. Michael was responsible for 74 deaths and $25.5 billion in losses. Hurricane experts believe that the damage would have been far more extensive had the storm not come ashore along a remote area of the Florida Big Bend region.

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 roared across Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas before skirting the coastline of the Southeast as a major rain producer. The storm was responsible for 47 deaths in the U.S. and 674 in hard-hit Haiti. Matthew was also a major disruptor, forcing the closure of Walt Disney World for only the fourth time in its 45-year history in the Orlando area.

The infamous Hurricane Wilma impacted Cancun, Mexico, in 2005 before tracking into South Florida. Thirty people died in the U.S. as a result of Wilma.

All of these storms serve as a reminder that October is not a time to rest easy.

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