Hurricane Forecast Revised as Peak Hurricane Season Nears

A revised Atlantic hurricane season forecast is offering new guidance on how many tropical weather events to expect for the remainder of the year. Here is what you need to know.

El Niño Puts Lid on Tropical Development in the Atlantic

As El Niño continues to intensify, the number of predicted storms in the Atlantic basin continues to fall. This is because a stronger El Niño phase suppresses tropical activity in this part of the basin. Accuweather is now projecting 8 to 11 storms this season in the Atlantic. Of that number, three to four are predicted to go on to become hurricanes, and one to two will become major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is lower than the 11 to 16 named features predicted at the start of the season. While the overall activity has been revised downward, experts still predict three to five of these storms will directly impact the U.S.

There have been three named storms to roam the Atlantic thus far, well below the norm by this time of the season. Arthur and Bertha both came ashore along the Gulf Coast, while Cristobal remained out in the open seas. None of these storms have gone on to become hurricanes.

This compares to last year when there were five named storms by August 19. This includes the monster Category 5 Hurricane Erin. For context, the average date of the first Atlantic hurricane is August 11. The fourth named storm typically forms by August 15.

Although the Atlantic was full of activity in 2025, none of the hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. Should this year also be void of a hurricane landfall, it will be the first multi-year stretch since 2009 and 2010 with no strikes. The longest stretch in recorded history with no U.S. hurricane landfalls dates back to 1862 through 1864.

Not the Time to Relax

Hurricane experts are warning that now is not the time to relax. Despite the growing confidence that Super El Niño will develop over the back half of the hurricane season and increase the destructive wind shear, there is still an abundance of warm water near the U.S. coastline. These warm waters can work to fuel tropical activity close to land, leaving residents and businesses little time to prepare for impact.  

The northern and eastern regions of the Gulf Coast, as well as the Carolinas, are both expected to see a higher-than-average risk of direct storm impacts in the months ahead. The northeastern Caribbean is also at a heightened risk this season.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, meaning that there is still plenty of time for a strong storm to come together. It is also important to remember that some of the most devastating hurricanes in recent history spun up in the weeks after the climatological peak.

For example, Hurricane Helene came ashore in the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4 storm on September 26, 2024. It was nearly two weeks later that Category 3 Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida.

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