Hurricane Isaias Could Bring Up to 10 Feet of Storm Surge to the Gulf Coast
Hurricane Isaias is beginning to impact the Gulf Coast as it gears up for a late Friday landfall. Here is the latest on this major hurricane that is set to bring severe impacts to much of the southeastern U.S. throughout the weekend.
Gulf Coast Braces for Category 3 Hurricane Landfall
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting that Isaias will make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane late Friday night somewhere near the border of Alabama and Florida. The storm's winds reached 120 mph on Friday morning, making it a major hurricane as it makes its approach.
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect in a zone from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the east to the Bay and Gulf County line in Florida. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the swath of coastline from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Florida's Suwannee River.
Likely impacts of this storm event include heavy rain, flooding, high winds, storm surge, tornadoes, and waterspouts. Isaias is racing to the north at a speed of 17 mph. The fast movement of this storm will send the strong winds farther inland when compared to storms that move at a slower speed. Fortunately, the swift movement will also help to limit rainfall totals.
The latest forecast models put the storm coming ashore just to the east of Pensacola, Florida. This track is good news for Mobile Bay, Alabama; however, significant storm surge is now expected in an area from Pensacola Bay through Destin, Florida. Surge is also expected in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, in the hours ahead. The northerly winds associated with Isaias will translate to minor to moderate surge toward New Orleans. The cities of New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola are all under the gun for urban flooding.
Diving into the numbers, storm surge of 6 to 10 feet is in the forecast for the Alabama Panhandle and into the western flank of the Florida Panhandle on Friday night through Saturday morning. A surge of 1 to 6 feet is likely for a more widespread area from southeastern Louisiana to the Big Bend region of Florida.
The high waves coming along with surge will amplify the overwash. These large swells will support the development of strong rip currents, especially along the north-central and northeastern coastline.
It goes without saying that Isaias will unleash torrential rain and gusty winds. The heaviest rain bands will set up near the center and to the east. A broad area of 1 to 4 inches of rain is expected throughout the Southeast, with 8 to 12 inches in the forecast near the point of landfall. As is typical, the highest winds and most life-threatening storm surge flooding are forecast for the area just to the east of where the storm comes ashore.
The strongest winds are predicted to hit the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. Wind gusts of 100 to 120 mph near the eye will result in widespread power outages that extend well inland. Tropical storm-force winds between 40 and 60 mph will expand out from the center into the southeastern U.S., reaching as far as Tennessee for a brief time.
Comparing Isaias to Helene
It is understandable to be worried that Isaias will be the next Hurricane Helene, a 2024 storm that killed hundreds and triggered billions of dollars in damage. However, forecasters note that there are stark differences between the two storms. Unlike speedy Isaias, Helene was a slow-moving storm that trained over the interior Southeast for days. This longevity of this storm was responsible for the deadly flooding in the southern Appalachians.
In addition, Isaias' track is taking it farther west when compared to Helene. It was Helene's track to the east over the southern Appalachians that was responsible for the flooding and mudslides over the rugged terrain.
Although Isaias is a threat to take very seriously, it is not likely to pack the punch that Helene did two years ago. For instance, the heavy rain coming along with Isaias will last for mere hours rather than for several days.
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