Hurricane Polo Becomes the Pacific's Second-Strongest Storm on Record

Hurricane Polo made history this week as the second-strongest hurricane on record in the Pacific. The moisture associated with this record-breaking storm is also fueling a dangerous flash flooding situation in parts of the Southwest, and a separate system is now closing in on Hawaii with fears of catastrophic flooding.

Hurricane Polo Lays its Claim to History

The Eastern Pacific is teeming with tropical activity this week, continuing the trend that has marked this basin all summer. Hurricane Polo has been fluctuating between Category 4 and Category 5 strength since undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, as it churns off Mexico's southwestern coast.

The storm went through the process of rapid intensification earlier in the week, with maximum sustained winds increasing by 110 mph in a period of just 24 hours. This marked the second-fastest rate of intensification ever observed. Polo will also go down in the record books for seeing its central pressure dive to 892 millibars, good enough for the second-lowest pressure ever recorded in either the Eastern or Central Pacific.

Although Polo weakened slightly on Wednesday, its peak winds of 180 mph tied with 2009's Hurricane Rick for the third-highest wind speeds ever observed in the Pacific, coming in behind 2015's Patricia with winds at 215 mph and 1997's Linda with winds topping out at 185 mph. In short, Polo is a record-breaker across several different metrics.

Unlike earlier forecasts that suggested Polo would turn away from Mexico and remain safely offshore, the storm is now forecast to loop back toward the coast, with the National Hurricane Center projecting a landfall in Baja California around Monday night. While Polo's strongest winds and heaviest rain are expected to stay offshore during its initial pass near Mexico's west-central coast this week, coastal areas of Guerrero and Michoacán could still see 3 to 8 inches of rain capable of triggering life-threatening flooding and mudslides in steep terrain.

Polo remains a large storm in terms of its reach: hurricane-force winds extend about 40 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach out roughly 125 miles. The National Hurricane Center says some additional strengthening is possible, and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days as it parallels the Mexican coast.

New Mexico Remains Under Flood Threat

While Polo has not made landfall, the impacts of this storm are amplifying the moisture that has been streaming into parts of the Southwest at times. A Flash Flood Warning was issued early Wednesday in some areas of New Mexico and into western Texas. This zone included the cities of Las Cruces, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas.

It has only been a week since heavy rain, coming along with a different tropical disturbance, was blamed for flooding that killed three people near the community of Newcomb, New Mexico. The Mora County Sheriff's Office noted that torrential rain caused the flooding that swept through parts of Ledoux and Mora.

Local officials are urging residents of southern New Mexico to avoid unnecessary travel through at least Thursday. Monsoon thunderstorms fueled by the moisture to the south will continue to impact New Mexico until the end of the week.

A New Threat Emerges for Hawaii

As if Polo weren't enough for the basin to handle, forecasters are now also watching a separate system closing in on Hawaii. The developing storm, expected to become Nolo if it strengthens further, could bring catastrophic flooding to the islands later this week, with some forecasts calling for 10 to 30-plus inches of rain and dangerous surf, particularly for the eastern islands.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys, which strengthened into a hurricane earlier this week, has churned through the open Pacific. Forecast models suggest its rain bands could still interact with Polo's in the days ahead, funneling additional moisture into the southwestern U.S., though Polo is expected to remain the dominant system due to its sheer size and strength.

This year's Pacific season has now produced three Category 5 hurricanes — Genevieve, Lowell and Polo — a feat not seen since 2018, underscoring how active this basin has been amid this year's historic "super" El Niño.

Stick with us for all of the latest happenings in the busy Pacific.

Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.