Hurricane Polo Threatens to Fuel Flash Flooding in New Mexico and Texas

Hurricane Polo is forecast to make landfall in northwestern Mexico early next week. What is left of the storm will funnel tropical moisture up into New Mexico and Texas. Read on for the details.

Major Hurricane Polo Headed for Two Landfalls in Mexico

Polo briefly jumped up to a Category 5 status again on Thursday before dropping back to a Category 4 event later in the day. As of the late Thursday report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Polo was packing maximum sustained winds of 150 mph as it churned to the south of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving at a speed of 9 mph. Although Polo is moving away from Mexico at this time, its outer bands of rain are still reaching parts of the western coastline.

While Polo is moving to the northwest now, it is expected to make a turn back toward Mexico this weekend. From there, the forecast models predict that the storm will make an initial landfall in northern Baja California Sur early in the week before making a second landfall roughly 24 hours later along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

The steep terrain of northwestern Mexico will send the moisture-rich air upward, amplifying the rainfall and supporting the development of dangerous flash flooding across parts of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Sonora, and Chihuahua. While the storm will begin to lose strength as it moves over the mountainous terrain, it could remain a tropical rainstorm as it travels farther inland.

Interaction of Polo with Storm in the West Will Mean Heavy Rain for Southwest and Beyond

The latest forecast models suggest that steering winds could direct some of the moisture associated with Polo into Texas and New Mexico. This moisture is expected to arrive at about the same time that a large non-tropical event tracks to the east across the western third of the U.S. The interaction of Polo's remnants and the storm in the West will lay the groundwork for what is shaping up to be a major rain event for parts of the Southwest and the southern Plains.

Where Polo tracks and how well it maintains its organization will determine what parts of the U.S. see the heaviest rain. Even in the absence of Polo's impacts, the non-tropical storm is forecast to deliver substantial precipitation to portions of Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado.

This part of the country has been under the gun for unseasonably high rain totals this month. Some areas of New Mexico have notched rainfall well over the historical average for the entire month of September with almost a week to go. For instance, Taos has recorded over 6.50 inches of rain since the start of the month, equating to almost five times the norm for September.

The same set-up between the two storms over the Southwest could also affect the south-central portions of the country later in the week. The interaction between the two disturbances could translate to heavy rain for a zone from the Big Bend region of Texas and up into central and eastern Oklahoma, including Texas Hill Country. Any non-flooding rainfall will be welcome for parts of the region still experiencing drought conditions.

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