Hurricane Simon Forecast to Reach Category 4 Before Hitting Mexico
While the eastern U.S. is dealing with the first hurricane of the Atlantic season this weekend, the tropics have been alive and well for months in the Pacific. A new hurricane formed late this week in this basin, threatening to become a Category 4 monster in the coming days as it tracks toward Mexico. Read on for details of Hurricane Simon, as well as the other happenings in the tropics.
Simon Expected to Reach Category 4 Status by Sunday
Simon reached hurricane status on Thursday in the Eastern Pacific, continuing to strengthen throughout the day on Friday as it approaches Mexico. The late Friday update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) put Simon at a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Simon is crawling to the north-northwest at 3 mph. The latest forecast models predict Simon will make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico early Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane.
The saving grace for those in the path of Simon will be the storm's proximity to the coast of Mexico as it tries to strengthen. The dry air coming down from the mountains will be sucked into the storm, limiting its strength as it moves ashore.
A hurricane warning has been issued for a zone from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita. A tropical storm watch is in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are in the forecast from western Oaxaca to the north through Chihuahua. This line of moisture will reach as far as the southwestern U.S.
A more concentrated zone of 12 to 18 inches is likely in a zone from northern Nayarit to western Guerrero in southwestern Mexico. Even higher totals of 18 to 24 inches are possible across the coastline regions of Jalisco and Colima.
In addition to the threat of flash flooding, life-threatening mudslides will be a concern. The rain associated with Simon fired up early Friday in southwestern Mexico, meaning that the grounds are now saturated and primed for flooding. Simon is expected to pick up speed late Monday, sending the tropical moisture into the southern Plains by late Tuesday.
Gusts reaching speeds of 100 to 120 mph are anticipated along the southwestern coast of Mexico early Sunday as Simon comes ashore. Top gusts of 120 to 140 mph will roar through the far western flank of Jalisco. Gusts could hit as high as 150 mph near Simon's eyewall.
Tropical storm-force winds will continue to whip around as the storm moves deeper into Mexico. A large swath of Sinaloa and Durango should prepare for winds of 40 to 60 mph, capable of causing localized power surges.
Lastly, Simon's rapid intensification will create rough seas and large swells near and to the right of the center of the storm. Storm surge reaching 10 to 15 feet will inundate the coastal region of Jalisco.
Triple Threat in the Tropics
As Hurricane Simon is gearing up to strike Mexico and move into the U.S., Tropical Storm Rachel will dump heavy rain and whip up the winds across Southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of the weekend. A southward plunge in the jet stream across the western U.S. will interact with the tropical moisture coming from Rachel to send the rain well beyond the storm's center of circulation.
On the other side of the country, Hurricane Isaias will continue to push inland across the eastern U.S. after making landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday. The heavy rain, high winds, and storm surge associated with the former Category 3 storm will support the development of flooding and power outages.
In short, the second weekend of October is shaping up to be a doozy for millions of people across Mexico and the U.S.
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