Iceland Declares Climate Issue a National Security Risk

In yet another example of how the warming planet is disrupting key systems, a crucial network of ocean currents could be on the brink of collapse near Iceland. What do these ocean currents signal about the threat of global warming? Read on for all of the details.

Climatologists Warn of Key Ocean Current Collapse

The island nation of Iceland is surrounded by a network of ocean currents that traverse the Atlantic Ocean, sending heat to the north. Without this system, Iceland would experience more storms and icier conditions. In fact, the relatively mild climate of Iceland in relation to its far north location is largely shaped by this network of currents.

Climatologists are sounding the alarm bell that these currents could be on the verge of suffering a major collapse. The government of Iceland is so concerned about this issue and its potential impact that it recently designated the risk a national security threat. As a result of this designation, the country is tagging it as a high-level response that necessitates immediate exploration. According to Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, Iceland’s Minister for Environment, Energy and Climate, the country's climate, economy, and national security are all tied to the stability of these ocean currents.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a moving system of ocean currents that pulls water from the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics and ferries it up to the Northern Hemisphere. The water naturally becomes cooler as it is looped to the north, thereby sinking and flowing back toward the south. It is easy to visualize this movement by picturing a conveyor belt that is constantly looping.

Climatologists have long said that the collapse of the AMOC is one of the most pressing threats to the planet. More and more research is indicating that the AMOC is slowing down. This deceleration is being blamed on the rise of temperatures around the globe.  While most scientists are in agreement that the AMOC is at risk of breaking down, the big question is when this collapse might happen. Some studies have suggested that the AMOC collapse could happen by the end of this century.

The impacts of an AMOC collapse would be devastating. Not only would sea levels rise throughout parts of Europe and the U.S., but the collapse would also disrupt normal monsoonal patterns in Africa and Asia, triggering a deep winter freeze in Europe, and send sea ice as far south as the United Kingdom.

On a more local level, Iceland would also see dropping temperatures as the sea ice located to the north continues to drift farther to the south. Scientists say that Iceland is under an existential threat if the AMOC collapses. Because the AMOC serves as the chief regulator of the nation's weather patterns, its demise could be devastating to its vital industries and infrastructure.

Why Iceland Designated the Possible Collapse a National Security Risk  

Jóhannsson recently briefed government leaders on the latest research published in August. It was just recently that Iceland’s National Security Council designated AMOC's potential collapse as a security risk. This is significant as it is the first time that a climate impact has been designated a threat to security. Jóhannsson said that the decision to elevate this threat is reflective of the fact that "this is not just a scientific concern — it’s a matter of national survival and security.”

The decision to put this under the category of a national security risk is prompting a coordinated government response to the issue. This response includes more effort to understand the risk, as well as brainstorming ways to prevent the most dire consequences. It is important to note that while Iceland would see the most immediate impacts of a potential AMOC collapse, the effects will be observed around the world to some degree.

Climatologists are still trying to get a better grasp on how these impacts will carry across the planet. Potential effects include catastrophic flooding and the mass destruction of agricultural industries. The behavior of the AMOC in the coming years will certainly be something that scientists will be monitoring carefully.

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