Is Bertha on the Way? Forecasters Monitoring Chances of New Tropical Development Next Week

It has been a quiet period of time in the Atlantic since Tropical Storm Arthur fizzled out. Is the next named feature on the way soon? Forecasters warn that a building heat dome could lay the groundwork for the next tropical weather maker emerging from the Atlantic basin. Here is a look at what you need to know.

Heat Dome Could Fuel Next Atlantic Tropical Storm

The 2026 Atlantic season has been unusually calm thus far. However, that could change in the week ahead as the emergence of a heat dome supports the development of tropical weather. Water temperatures in the southwestern Atlantic and the Gulf are trending warmer than usual for the end of June. This warmth, paired with the energy at the edge of the heat dome, could supply the ingredients needed for tropical development. The feature would first present as an area of disorganized storms.

The next name up on the list of Atlantic names this year is Bertha.

The clusters of storms would most likely ignite on the back end of a front that is forecast to stall out when it reaches the southern Atlantic coastline later this week. The storms churning in this part of the basin could come together in a zone of low pressure, becoming the seeds for a potential tropical or subtropical event.

Meteorologists have been predicting that a large heat dome is set to build over the Midwest early next week. The normal clockwise flow of air around the zone will produce thunderstorms along the edges of the dome. This will translate to storms coming down from the Rockies and into the northern Plains at the onset. These storms will eventually make a turn to the southeast when they reach the Great Lakes. Moving farther south, the clusters of storms are expected to move from east to west.

Areas of storms that move ashore in Georgia or northern Florida are not likely to take on tropical characteristics. However, there is a chance that this system could intensify into a tropical event if the area of low pressure continues to move west along the northern Gulf Coast.

There could be several waves of storms that move in the atypical east-to-west path across the southern Atlantic coast and into the Gulf.  This movement is similar to what happens when tropical waves move off the coast of Africa across the Atlantic to the west during the peak of the season in this basin.

At this point, a potent northeasterly wind shear and the proximity of the system to land will likely put a lid on formal tropical development. But forecasters have not yet ruled out this possibility, making it important to stay abreast of the changing conditions. This is especially true if your plans for next week call for time at the beach.

Even in the absence of formal tropical development, a large swath of land from Texas and across the Gulf Coast into the Carolinas is forecast to see heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms by next week. This will be a contrast to the hot and dry weather building to the north as the heat dome settles into the region.

In addition to the impacts on land, swimmers and boaters will need to be aware of the possibility of rough surf conditions and dangerous rip currents. Keep in mind that rip currents can form even when it is dry and sunny.

When and Where to Expect the Tropical Impacts

The surge of tropical moisture will announce its presence early next week. Places along the southern Atlantic coastline can expect the rain and storms to move in on Monday. For instance, Savannah, Georgia, is forecast to see mostly sunny skies early in the day, transitioning to thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening hours. It will be a hot and humid day with highs in the mid 90s and overnight lows that bottom out in the upper 70s. The threat of thunderstorms in Savannah will persist through Tuesday.

Heading farther west, Mobile, Alabama, will see the greatest concentration of storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be a toasty stretch of days in this part of the Gulf Coast, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s paired with high humidity levels. Although the conditions will clear up on Thursday, more thunderstorm activity is on tap for the holiday weekend.

The tropical rain will not hit New Orleans until later in the day on Tuesday. The Big Easy is bracing for scattered thunderstorms to roam the area through the rest of the week. Like the rest of the region, it will be a steamy week with plenty of humidity and highs around the 90-degree mark.

We will continue to monitor the potential development of this tropical feature as the models become more precise in the days ahead. Stay tuned for all of the latest tropical weather information.

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