It’s Official: A Super El Niño Has Arrived Ahead of Winter
After months of conjecture, the Super El Niño has officially arrived. Forecasters have been warning for quite some time that this El Niño was likely to develop into what climatologists call a Super El Niño. What does the onset of this powerful climate phase mean for the weather in the coming months? This is what you need to know heading into the winter season.
Super El Niño is Now Official Following NOAA Declaration
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) officially declared on Thursday that the ongoing El Niño is now a Super El Niño. This distinction is notable, as it is just the sixth time since 1950 that an El Niño year has gone into this record territory.
This declaration came as no surprise to anyone who has been following the evolution of this particular El Niño. El Niño is in place when ocean water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific hit at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the norm for at least three months. These readings inched up more in October, sending the ongoing El Niño into record territory.
Super El Niños are typically declared when water temperatures remain at least 2 degrees Celsius above the historical average for a few months. The Thursday update from NOAA confirmed that water temperatures in this part of the Pacific have officially reached the designated threshold of a Super El Niño.
Why You Can Expect When a Super El Niño Is Driving the Weather
So why does all of this matter? Climatologists note that stronger El Niño phases naturally exert a greater influence on how the weather unfolds around the world. A supercharged El Niño drives storm tracks and temperature trends.
Prior to this year, there have only been five other confirmed Super El Niños. The most recent happened during the winters of 1997 - 1998 and 2015 - 2016. Climatologists are warning that this current Super El Niño could end up even stronger than the previous record-breaking years.
The presence of a Super El Niño is even more notable heading into the winter months. This is the season when the climate phase is the most influential. A powerful El Niño tends to amplify the southern storm track, resulting in a wetter winter for a zone from California, through the Desert Southwest, the southern Plains, and into the Gulf Coast.
Florida is also expected to be under the gun for an elevated threat of severe weather and tornadoes throughout the winter, spoiling the plans of some of the state's snowbirds.
This weather pattern is already playing out this fall. Several atmospheric rivers have been pushing in from the Pacific and across the West Coast in recent weeks. The long-range forecast is calling for more of these volatile storms in the western U.S. over the next few months. This active storm track will naturally increase the risk of flash flooding, landslides, and heavy mountain snow.
Moving to the northern U.S., El Niño typically translates to fewer blasts of Arctic air and warmer winters for the northern Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest generally sees drier conditions when El Niño is in charge.
It bears noting that these predictions are based on overall trends. They do not mean that the northern U.S. will not see the occasional surge of Arctic air, nor do they mean that it will be a washout all winter in Florida. As always, regularly checking your local forecast is the best strategy.
Stay with us this winter as we keep tabs on how the strengthening El Niño is influencing the weather across the country and the world.
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