Level 3 of 5 Storm Threat in Place as Severe Weather Circles the Heat Dome

Fireworks may not be the only thing lighting up the skies in the days leading up to the Fourth of July holiday. Forecasters are warning that repeated rounds of thunderstorms will circle the massive heat dome anchored over the central and eastern U.S. in the coming days. Read on for a more precise look at when and where to expect the severe weather impacts.

Storms Could Put a Wrench in Outdoor Plans This Week

Americans hoping to head outside for Fourth of July festivities this week may be dodging thunderstorms. The heat dome that is sending the mercury soaring across much of the eastern half of the nation will also supply the necessary atmospheric ingredients to fuel severe weather outbreaks. The storms are expected to pop up along the northern rim of the heat dome during the first half of the week. These storms will then creep to the south as the heat dome weakens, bringing the impacts to those who avoided them in the early days.

The forecast models signal that the storms will vary in size and power. The bulk of the activity will ignite during the afternoon and evening hours as the temperatures heat up. Most of the storms will develop along the fringe of the heat dome, as this is where the flow of air around the high-pressure zone is concentrated.

While most of the storms will roam during the peak afternoon and evening hours, the strongest events could maintain their intensity into the overnight hours. There is an outside chance that some of the potent storms could evolve into long-complex storms known as derechos. A derecho is distinguished for its ability to remain on the ground for several hours, carving a path of destruction over hundreds of miles.

Damaging winds and torrential rainfall are the most concerning aspects of this weather maker. Hail the size of golf balls is also a possibility. Lastly, frequent lightning strikes could present hazards as people gather outside for the typical holiday festivities.

Timing of Storm Activity

There are two areas of storms setting up on Tuesday. The first wave of action is impacting the Midwest and the Plains through the evening and overnight hours. The greatest chance of tornadic activity will be across northern Wisconsin and Michigan. Hail measuring the size of baseballs could be an issue in a zone from Texas and up into Nebraska.

A secondary cluster of storms is forecast to roam portions of northeastern Pennsylvania, New England, and upstate New York. These storms will primarily impact the region in the latter part of the day, persisting well after the sun goes down.

The central U.S. will get caught in the crosshairs of the worst of Wednesday's storms. A large swath of land stretching from the eastern edge of New Mexico to the northeast into northern Michigan will be the target of this possible severe weather.

Once again, another area of stormy conditions will train over the Northeast on Wednesday. The northern reaches of New England will bear the brunt of these impacts. Storms will linger across northern New England on Thursday and Friday.

Also on Thursday, a widespread area of severe storms is in the forecast in a zone from eastern Montana to the east into the Dakotas, northern and central Nebraska, the central and southern regions of Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin. Cities in the line of fire include Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls, and Minneapolis.

The same general area will be at risk of storms ruining outdoor and travel plans on Friday. However, the storm coverage will also expand on this day, bringing all of Wisconsin, northern Missouri, parts of Illinois, Michigan, and northwestern Indiana into the fold.

When to Expect Storms in the Southern U.S.

While the southern periphery of the heat dome will not see the volume of storms expected along the northern rim, this part of the U.S. is also not in the clear. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting that a cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms coming together off the coast of the Southeast will move to the west at the time, bringing the impacts to the northern Gulf Coast states.

High winds and heavy rain are the primary concerns associated with this surge of tropical moisture. There is a small chance that the zone of tropical moisture will evolve into a tropical depression as it spins offshore in the Atlantic.

Looking ahead to the long holiday weekend, the storms firing off in the northern third of the nation will start to move farther south as the heat dome loses its grip. Storms that travel from north to south can intensify at a fast clip as they find the hot and humid air coming up from the Gulf.

We will be back soon with an updated Fourth of July forecast.

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