New Mexico Faces Its Most Dangerous Flooding Risk in Years

New Mexico is facing its most dangerous flooding threat in the last five years as several storm systems converge in this part of the Southwest, delivering a triple threat. Here is a look at this three-pronged flooding risk spreading over New Mexico and the surrounding areas.

Tropical Moisture Pairs with Front from the West

The southwestern and central U.S. has been the target of several waves of residual tropical moisture this week, with the impacts expected to persist through the end of the week. The heavy rain is supported by the remnants of two hurricanes from the Pacific, as well as a separate non-tropical event pushing in from the west.

The first round of flooding unfolded on Monday as moisture from what was once Hurricane Odalys filtered up to the north into the Southwest and the Four Corners region. The highest peaks of southwestern Colorado saw the first snowfall of the season when the rain met with temperatures in the 30s on Tuesday morning and switched over to snow. Temperatures rebounding into the 40s and 50s after the sun came up quickly melted any snow that accumulated.

The moisture left behind by Odalys was joined by moisture from the former Hurricane Polo on Tuesday and Wednesday. To make matters worse, a dip in the jet stream across the West Coast brought down more energy that led to the formation of a hybrid storm system.

These bands of heavy rain are forecast to remain in place across portions of the Southwest, the south-central states, and the Plains through at least Friday. Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches will be possible for large swaths of the region by the time that the moisture machine finally turns off.

Flash Flooding Will Remain a Concern

Forecasters are warning that flash flooding will be a serious concern in areas that have been dealing with drought over the last few months. Drought-stricken areas are more likely to have compacted soil that is less permeable, meaning that the rain will not be absorbed and will simply run off and trigger flooding. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour in the hardest-hit areas will amplify the threat of life-threatening flood events.

While the short-term concerns of flooding should be taken seriously, any non-flooding rainfall is beneficial for the parts of the Southwest under the designation of extreme and excessive drought. This line of moisture will continue to crawl to the east as the week progresses, bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to the south-central U.S.

A separate weather maker will also result in disruptive rain and storms for much of the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic as the weekend approaches.

The takeaway from this forecast is that the Southwest and southern Plains are not out of the woods yet. While the tropical moisture is starting to ease, the threat of flash flooding will remain something to monitor as rivers and streams rise.

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