New Tropical Storm Could Become a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane

Hurricane Simon is battering the Pacific coast of Mexico just as a new feature forms nearby. Read on for the latest update on the train of tropical weather events lining up in the Eastern Pacific.

Simon's Path Becoming More Unpredictable

The Eastern Pacific has not yet received the memo that this is the time of year when the tropical weather season begins to wind down. The latest player in this part of the world's oceans is Hurricane Simon, threatening the west-central coast of Mexico with heavy rain and rough seas.

Earlier forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had predicted that Simon would be reaching the shore soon. However, this arrival has been delayed thanks to weak steering winds in this corner of the basin. The storm is now forecast to spin slowly off the coast through at least Thursday.

The big question now is how close to land Simon will meander. A track difference of just 100 miles will mean the difference between a hurricane strike or tropical storm impacts for this part of Mexico.

There is also a good deal of uncertainty surrounding what impacts, if any, the U.S. will feel from Simon. If Simon's path takes it more to the north into Mexico,  it would move over the mountainous terrain and lose its core of moisture and high winds. Conversely, a track to the northwest would take it around the highest mountains and funnel the moisture into Arizona or New Mexico.

There is also a chance that Simon could stall and remain offshore, never coming into Mexico. This would greatly diminish the storm's impacts to both Mexico and the U.S. as it would dissipate near the coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico, without making landfall.

Lastly, some blocks of Simon's moisture could also break off from the core of the storm and drift into the central U.S. later this week. This plume of tropical moisture would then meet up with a storm coming down from the Rockies to produce a significant rain event for the nation's heartland.

Regardless of what Simon does next, portions of the Mexican coastline should prepare for the storm's outer bands. Even in the absence of a landfall, these impacts will include heavy rain, flash flooding, gusty winds, and large swells. While the worst of Simon's impacts have already moved through southwestern Mexico, the northwestern corner of Mexico is still under threat.

Trudy Now Joins Simon in the Eastern Pacific

The supercharged Eastern Pacific hurricane season is showing no signs of slowing down. Forecasters are now monitoring a new feature that first became a tropical depression on Tuesday. The latest forecast models signal that what is now Tropical Storm Trudy could explode into a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. According to the late Tuesday update from the NHC, Trudy was packing winds of 45 mph as it moved to the northwest at a speed of 10 mph.

This developing storm is predicted to hug the western coastline of Mexico, dumping another wave of heavy rain while whipping up winds and unleashing dangerous surf conditions. While the forecast is still in the early stages, a large swath of 8 to 12 inches of rain is likely with this latest tropical weather event.

Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across a significant stretch of the coastline in Mexico. A good portion of this precipitation is forecast to hit in the zone between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, adding to the misery that is being created by Simon and his predecessors.

The resort area of Manzanillo is in the line of fire for the worst of this storm's impacts, including flooding rainfall and destructive winds.  Should Trudy intensify as predicted, it is likely to become a large storm capable of producing high waves and large swells hundreds of miles out from its center.

Again, this is a fluid situation that is likely to change notably in the coming days. Stay tuned as we keep close watch on all of the developments in the Eastern Pacific basin as the record-breaking hurricane season marches on.

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