NHC Tracking New Gulf Disturbance Near Florida's Big Bend

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico off Florida's west coast, though forecasters say the odds of it becoming a tropical system remain low for now.

The area of low pressure could form near Florida's Big Bend over the weekend before tracking northeast into the Atlantic, according to the NHC. As of the latest advisory, the system has just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days.

Development or not, the disturbance is expected to bring on-and-off rounds of heavy rain to the Tampa Bay area through the weekend and into the start of next week, with the highest rain chances arriving Saturday through Tuesday.

Conditions for tropical development could improve slightly as wind shear over the Gulf eases and a plume of Saharan dust that has been suppressing storm formation continues to retreat.

Forecast models are not in agreement on how this plays out. The GFS model keeps the disturbance from developing at all and paints a notably different, drier outlook for Tampa Bay heading into next week, while other guidance leans toward a wetter pattern.

Given the uncertainty, forecasters are urging Gulf Coast residents to keep an eye on the system's progress rather than focus on any single model run. Local meteorologists say they'll continue issuing updates as the weekend approaches and the disturbance's track and intensity become clearer.

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