October 2026 Was the Warmest October Ever Recorded Around the World
If October seemed particularly mild to you, it is because it was. A new heat record was set across the planet last month, with several U.S. cities also notching record heat. Here is a look back at the toasty October across the world.
New Global Warmth Record Set in October
Last month is going down in history as the warmest October ever measured on a global scale. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average surface air temperature came in at 59.6 degrees Fahrenheit (15.35 degrees Celsius). This reading was 1.6 degrees above the 1991 - 2020 average for October, putting it past the previous record of 1.5 degrees over the norm from 2023.
Over a dozen American cities have come in with the highest mean temperature compared to the historical average between September 1 and November 5. Pulling the lens out, October was 3.2 degrees above the 1850 - 1900 pre-industrial average across the world. October was also the third consecutive month above 2.7 degrees, or 1.5 Celsius, on average. It was only a year ago that the planet saw three straight months of temperatures hovering at least 2.7 degrees above the norm.
While one single month coming in above 1.5 Celsius does not mean that the planet has missed the goal outlined in the Paris Agreement, it does raise concern that this is becoming a worrisome trend. These consecutive readings add up when looked at over the whole year. For example, the global average temperature over the last 12 months was 1.1 degrees above the average recorded between 1991 and 2020, equating to 2.7 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
C3S analyzed past data to ascertain that it is "virtually certain" that 2026 will finish the year above the recommended 1.5 degrees Celsius. The forecasting agency predicts the final readings will come in between 1.56 and 1.61 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Should this prediction come to fruition, it would make 2026 the second year to eclipse this mark. The first year to reach the threshold was 2024.
Intensifying El Niño Pushing Temperatures Higher
As with most weather patterns over the last few months, a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is largely to blame for the heat. This emerging climate phase has sent global temperatures even higher, amplifying the impacts of climate change. El Niño is likely to remain the driving force behind the weather for the next few months.
Looking at the U.S. specifically, more than two dozen metro areas ranked number one for the highest mean temperature when compared to the historical average between September 1 and November 5. These toasty cities were concentrated in the central part of the country, including Wichita, St. Louis, Des Moines, Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Houston.
The orientation of the jet stream over the last few months was responsible for the higher-than-usual temperatures across the nation's heartland. The large dip of the jet stream across the western U.S. paired with the bulge to the north across the Mississippi Valley to the Appalachians squeezed the heat into the middle of the country. While the nights were chilly due to the wind patterns, the afternoons remained unseasonably warm.
The warm fall came on the heels of a sweltering summer. July was distinguished as the hottest month ever recorded in the contiguous U.S. Many American cities recorded several days in the triple digits in 2026.
Heading over to Europe, October of 2026 will be remembered for the exceptionally dry conditions across western Iberia, France, eastern Germany, Poland, the Balkans, much of Italy, and western Russia. The lack of moisture has translated into low river flows in many of the major waterways in central and eastern Europe. For instance, the Rhine, Danube, and Vistula have all been impacted by the dry weather pattern.
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