Old Farmer’s Almanac Calls for a White Christmas in 16 States This Year
With Halloween in the rearview mirror, it is time to start thinking about Christmas. What are the chances of seeing a White Christmas this year? Here is what the Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting about which states have the highest chances of seeing snow on the ground over the holiday.
Dreaming of a White Christmas? Here is Where You Will Have the Most Luck
The Old Farmer's Almanac has made its annual prediction about the chances of a White Christmas across various regions in the U.S. In general, the most likely areas to see snow over the holiday are across the Intermountain West and the Northeast.
The Almanac said it makes its predictions using "a unique formula that combines three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology." The Almanac dates back to 1792, publishing astronomical data and long-range weather forecasts that have been relied on for centuries.
According to the Almanac, there are parts of 16 states that could enjoy a wintry landscape when Christmas rolls around. The states that could have more than an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning are Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
However, it is important to note that only some parts of these states would see snow. For instance, while snow may be likely in the higher terrains of Washington in the Cascades, that does not mean that Seattle will see a White Christmas.
In addition to the states with a high probability of snow on the ground, the Almanac also gives several states a "chance of a White Christmas" across portions of the Plains, the Midwest, and Appalachians. States that have an outside chance of seeing flakes fly in spots include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.
Keep in mind that these are simply long-range predictions based on historical data and what the latest models indicate about overall trends. For example, the intensification of El Niño will certainly play a role in how this winter unfolds.
What NOAA Says About the Upcoming Weather
While the Almanac is specifically looking at the chances of a White Christmas, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that temperatures will trend on the warmer side for November for the majority of the northern U.S.
Forecasters have been focused on the behavior of the polar vortex in recent weeks. This zone of winds that circulate atop both of Earth's poles is a common observation point as winter approaches. A weak polar vortex typically sends Arctic air spilling into Canada and the U.S.
The polar vortex is currently showing signs of an early-season disruption. However, forecasters say that it can take weeks for this blast of frigid air to make it from the North Pole and into the northern U.S. Additionally, the air that is currently hovering over Canada is still relatively warm. This means that any air that does get pushed into the northern U.S. when the vortex is disrupted will not be as cold as what is seen when these intrusions happen in the middle of the winter.
We will continue to update the chances of a White Christmas in each specific region of the U.S. as the holiday approaches. Stay with us for all of the latest winter weather updates.
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