Context:

OPEC+ is poised to approve a modest increase in oil output targets, driven by concerns over a potential supply glut and new sanctions impacting Russia. Since April, the group has raised production by over 2.7 million barrels per day, yet has moderated plans due to market volatility and predictions of oversupply. Key members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are expected to agree on an increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December. Oil prices recently dipped to a five-month low but have rebounded to around $65 per barrel amidst geopolitical tensions. The upcoming meeting aims to finalize these adjustments to output ahead of continued market uncertainties.

Dive Deeper:

• OPEC+ has gradually increased oil output targets by over 2.7 million barrels per day since April, but the pace of increases slowed in recent months due to fears of oversupply.

• New Western sanctions targeting Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, are complicating discussions for further output increases.

• Eight member countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have reportedly reached a consensus to boost December's output targets by 137,000 barrels per day.

• Oil prices fell to approximately $60 a barrel on October 20 due to concerns about a supply glut but have since risen to around $65 a barrel amid geopolitical developments.

• OPEC+ had previously cut output by a total of 5.85 million barrels per day until April, with measures including voluntary cuts and restrictions from several members.

• The group is unwinding previous voluntary cuts, while maintaining certain restrictions until the end of 2026 to stabilize the market.