Potential Area of Tropical Development Growing More Concerning in the Gulf

A large trough of low pressure anchored over the northeastern corner of Mexico has put forecasters on alert for possible tropical development. What does this mean for the U.S. in the days ahead? Read on for all of the details.

First Tropical Storm of Season in the Atlantic Becoming More Likely

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low pressure near the western Gulf Coast. As of the Tuesday morning update from the forecasting agency, this feature has been designated a potential tropical cyclone with a good chance of evolving into a named feature. However, even if it does not reach the status of a named tropical event, the feature will still be potent enough to trigger heavy rain and flash flooding for much of the southern U.S.

The NHC notes that the most likely time frame for tropical development will be late Tuesday or Wednesday. As of early Tuesday, the trough was still centered over land as it crawls to the northeast at a speed of 6 mph. The feature is packing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. Forecasters will be watching to see if the trough ejects out into the Gulf, a part of the basin where environmental conditions are moderately conducive for tropical development to take shape.

At this point, the system is presenting as a large area of disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms. The tropical weather maker is coming together due to a confluence of factors, including the merger of the remnants of the former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, a tropical wave of low pressure originating from Africa, and a stalled weather front along the southern flank of the U.S.

While it did not appear that anything official would come of this feature over the weekend, the NHC increased the chances of development to medium on Monday. By designating the system as a potential tropical cyclone, the NHC puts it on the map and raises the alert level. The agency runs specialized hurricane models on these features, providing more information to use when making forecasts.

Should the storm come to life offshore, it could become either an official tropical depression or tropical storm. Winds need to hit speeds of 39 mph or greater to take on the designation of a named tropical storm. While the Eastern Pacific has already seen three named storms early in the season, the Atlantic basin is still waiting for its first named feature to come to life. The first name up on the list for the Atlantic is Arthur.

Any development that does come to fruition will not spend a lot of time in the Gulf. This will limit the opportunity that it has to intensify. The time that the system spends over the warm waters of the Gulf will determine if it gathers enough wind energy to intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical weather events thrive on warm and moisture-rich air. Because this storm is not expected to linger in the Gulf for long, forecasters are not concerned with it undergoing the process of rapid intensification and turning into a hurricane.

What to Expect in the Coming Days

Even if rapid intensification is unlikely, the storm will still pack quite a punch as it moves inland. Several flood watches have been issued across South Texas and into coastal Louisiana. The tropical rainstorm centered over northern Mexico has crept into parts of Texas over the last few days. Central Texas bore the brunt of Monday's weather when 2 to 4 inches of rain resulted in widespread flooding across Texas Hill Country and Austin. Five vehicles stranded in high water prompted a massive rescue response in Burleson County.

In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana. A significant flood risk will be the story of the week for large portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia for the back half of the week.

The latest forecast models warn that total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are likely across a swath of land from South Texas to eastern Alabama. A more concentrated area is bracing for 8 to 12 inches of rain over the multi-day event. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches per hour are possible in some cases.

The latest forecast models signal that the feature will push inland over the Deep South no later than Thursday. The movement of the system into this region will put the threat of heavy rain over the South well into the weekend. The bands of flooding rainfall will extend as far north as the Tennessee Valley through Saturday.

This is a good time to remind everyone that you should never drive into a flooded stretch of road. It can be impossible to tell how deep the water is when flooding occurs. Turn around and find another route rather than taking a chance and driving through the water.

This is a rapidly changing situation that necessitates frequent monitoring. Stay tuned for the latest forecast details as the tropical feature becomes more defined and moves closer to U.S. soil.

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