Simon and Gulf Moisture Fuel Flooding Downpours From Texas to Illinois
The combination of a storm ejecting out of the Rockies and an influx of tropical moisture coming up from Mexico will translate to a rough stretch of weather for a large swath of the Plains. Read on for a closer look at when and where the storms are forecast to fire up this week.
Drought Relief on the Way for the Plains, but at the Expense of Flooding Issues
The nation's heartland will be dodging storms in the days ahead as a storm system approaching from the west meets up with the remnants of Hurricane Simon. While the sudden downpours will provide relief from the drought, the pattern will also raise the risk of flooding and travel delays in a zone from Texas through Illinois.
The greatest threat of flash flooding will set up in an area from West Texas to the northeast into southwestern Missouri. This area of impact includes the cities of Lubbock, Texas; Oklahoma City; and Springfield, Missouri.
This is a part of the country that has been dealing with extreme drought conditions since last winter. For instance, Oklahoma City has only picked up 55% of its normal rainfall for the year.
In addition to the moisture associated with the tropical weather in the Eastern Pacific, another influx of precipitation coming up from the Gulf will also fuel the repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms across Texas and beyond.
The storms will first fire up late Tuesday in an area from eastern New Mexico and West Texas to the north into western Oklahoma, Kansas, central Missouri, and the west-central portion of Illinois. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding concerns at this time. The strongest storm cells could also generate hail and winds up to 70 mph.
Stormy Pattern Will Continue Through Thursday
This volatile weather pattern will continue through Thursday. Once again, flooding and high winds will be the primary risks associated with Wednesday's storm event. The greatest concentration of severe weather is forecast to train over northwestern and north-central Texas, Oklahoma, and the southern tier of Kansas. This is when the storm coming out of the Rockies will merge with moisture flowing into the Plains. These storms could reach as far north as Nebraska.
Motorists will want to be aware of the likelihood of travel disruptions on Wednesday across portions of interstates 20, 35, 40, 44, 70, and 80. Heavy rain could cause ponding and poor visibility on the roadways. Meanwhile, the gusty conditions may create dangerous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.
A similar situation will unfold on Thursday when abundant moisture circulating through the atmosphere will fuel the development of torrential downpours. The Thursday evening commute could be especially messy, particularly if any of the thunderstorms become severe.
The highest rain totals are expected from the northwestern corner of Texas to the northeast into Missouri. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are in the forecast through Thursday night in this area. Localized totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in a narrow swath from northwestern Texas through central Oklahoma and Missouri by the time that this pattern wraps up late Thursday. As is the norm, low-lying and poor drainage areas will be the most vulnerable to flooding issues over the next few days.
The weather maker will march to the east by the end of the work week. High pressure will drive the weather heading into the weekend for the Plains. While this will mean drier conditions, it will also be noticeably cooler when compared to recent temperatures. For example, daily highs will fall from the 80s and 90s early in the week to the 60s across much of Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska.
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