Something's Brewing in the Gulf, and Florida's in the Crosshairs

The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain mostly calm through the end of the month. The exception could be a potential disturbance forming in the Gulf by the beginning of next week. Read on for the latest details of what is happening in the Atlantic.

Is the Second Named Storm of the Atlantic Season Brewing?

The emergence of a potent El Niño has put a lid on tropical development in the Atlantic thus far this year. However, forecasters are now eyeing the possibility of signs of life across the Gulf beginning this weekend.

Repeated rounds of dry Saharan dust crossing the Atlantic from Africa have suppressed tropical activity in recent weeks. The latest forecasting tools suggest that this massive plume of dust will begin to ease during the back half of July. The most likely spots for tropical development will be in the southwestern corner of the Atlantic and the Gulf.

A weak zone of low pressure could form later this week along the north-central to northeastern edge of the Gulf Coast. The formation of a potential disturbance along a stalled front would bring up a surge of tropical moisture across the northern Gulf. This area of low pressure would need to remain anchored over the warm waters of the Gulf long enough to intensify and organize for a tropical depression or storm to form.

The forecast is calling for disruptive wind shear to fall in the northeastern Gulf beginning this week and into early next week. The lack of wind shear and the ocean waters trending 2 to 4 degrees above the norm for this time of the year will create a favorable breeding ground for tropical weather.

Even if this feature does not take on tropical characteristics, a swath of land from the Florida Panhandle into the Southeast could be dealing with heavy rain by the start of the new work week. Some of the most potent rain bands could creep deep into the interior Southeast.

The next name up for Atlantic storms is Bertha. Hurricane experts continue to revise their predictions for the Atlantic season downward as El Niño becomes more entrenched. For instance, AccuWeather's tropical weather team is predicting eight to 14 named storms in 2026.

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