Storm Off Florida Could Turn Subtropical Before Halloween

The end of October is going out on a spooky note in and around the Atlantic basin, right on theme as Halloween approaches. The ongoing King Tides have triggered minor to moderate coastal and tidal flooding while forecasters continue to monitor an area of potential tropical development by the end of the week. Here is the latest on what is happening in the Atlantic basin and how it is impacting the U.S.

Coastal Flooding a Threat

There is just over one month left in the Atlantic hurricane season. The official season runs through November 30, meaning this is not the time to let down your guard. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring an area near the Bahamas for potential development in the coming days.

The most pressing issue to start the week has been the ongoing King Tides that have crept up across many beaches in Florida and up into the Southeast. The persistent onshore flow is partnering with this tide cycle to cause water to pile up along this stretch of coastline, causing minor to moderate coastal flooding over the last few days. Monday marked the fifth consecutive day with water levels hitting over 2 feet above the ground.

Coastal Flood Warnings were in place for much of South Florida, Georgia, and the South Carolina Lowcountry. Low-lying neighborhoods and waterfront infrastructure are the most at risk. Local officials in South Florida are warning residents that the King Tides could send saltwater through storm drains and onto roadways across the communities of Miami Beach, Brickell, Fort Lauderdale, and down into the Florida Keys.

The current atmospheric elements in place will keep this flooding threat in place through the week. The compounding impacts of the water piling could worsen the situation in the coming days.

Tuesday's high tides could be particularly damaging. Places such as Charleston, South Carolina, will be in the bullseye of the highest tides. Charleston Harbor could see water levels hit the two-foot mark. The slow-moving nature of this system will amplify the flooding concerns farther inland away from the immediate coastal region.

In addition to the rain and the flooding concerns, winds of 20 to 25 mph, dangerous rip currents, and hazardous surf conditions will continue to impact a large swath of this coastline.

Area of Potential Offshore Development

At the same time that the King Tides are affecting the Florida and southern Atlantic coastline, another potential tropical weather system is coming together out in the open seas. Even if this storm does not develop formal tropical characteristics, it is still forecast to deliver locally heavy rain and windy conditions to parts of Florida.

While the eastern half of Florida will be under the gun for this offshore storm, the Gulf Coast region will enjoy a completely different weather situation. This part of the Sunshine State will live up to its name thanks to mostly dry conditions and moderate temperatures.

Forecasters will be closely watching a nearby front that could stymie tropical development. The expectation of strong wind shear could also prevent this feature from becoming the next named storm of the Atlantic season.

There is a chance that this feature could become a subtropical event, similar to what happened with Josephine last week. The next name up on the list for the 2026 season is Kyle.

Although it has been a historically quiet season in the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific continues to pop off with regularity. The strengthening El Niño is responsible for the flurry of activity that has unfolded in this part of the world's oceans. This week is a perfect example of how one storm begins to form just as another dissipates, keeping the train of events chugging along. Like the Atlantic, the Eastern Pacific season also concludes on November 30.

Stay with us as we move into the last month of the tropical weather season in both basins.

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