Texas and Gulf Coast Braces for Surge of Flooding Tropical Moisture

The Eastern Pacific has seen a sudden surge in tropical activity over the last few weeks. While this part of the world's oceans is going to calm down for a bit, what is left of one of its tropical storms could birth a named feature in the Gulf that could impact parts of the U.S. Read on for all of the details.

Surge of Tropical Moisture Headed to Texas and Louisiana by the Weekend

A long swath of land from Texas to Florida is forecast to be under the gun for tropical downpours and flash flooding in the days ahead. What is left of Tropical Storm Cristina in the Eastern Pacific is predicted to emerge on the other side of Mexico in the Gulf after it dumps heavy rain across parts of Central America. 

Should some of the energy from Cristina hold it together as it crosses over the rugged terrain of Central America and southern Mexico this week, it could lay the groundwork for a tropical weather maker in the Gulf. Even in the absence of a named storm, this tropical moisture is likely to impact parts of the U.S. with significant amounts of precipitation.

The latest forecast models suggest that the energy left from Cristina will merge with a tropical wave of low pressure coming from the east. These two elements would likely meet up in the southwestern Gulf, laying the groundwork for potential tropical development. However, the window for development this weekend is extremely narrow, meaning that this is not likely to evolve into a major tropical feature at this time.

While the Eastern Pacific has already seen three named tropical storms early in the season, it has been eerily quiet in the Atlantic as this basin awaits its first formal tropical event. The first name on deck on the Atlantic side is Arthur.

The greatest chance of tropical development in the Atlantic over the next week will be this area in the Gulf this weekend. This area of interest is forecast to creep into northeastern Mexico. However, the plume of deep tropical moisture associated with the feature is predicted to filter up to the north. This movement will put coastal and central portions of Texas and Louisiana into the line of fire later in the weekend and through the early part of next week.

Forecasters are warning this portion of the western Gulf Coast to be prepared for the threat of flash flooding. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are in the forecast. Some parts of South Texas up into Hill Country to the north and the Mississippi Delta region to the east could see up to 12 inches on Sunday and Monday.

As was sadly demonstrated last July, the Texas Hill Country is particularly vulnerable to these flooding rainfall events. The hard soil and steep terrain that marks the landscape of this region often has difficulty absorbing heavy amounts of rain, resulting in catastrophic flash flooding. It has been almost one year since the Guadalupe River overflowed its banks and killed over 100 people.

Looking at a few specific forecasts, Houston will see the rain and thunderstorms move in by Sunday afternoon. The rain will pick up in intensity in the overnight hours and heading into Monday. While the widespread threat of storms will begin to ease on Tuesday, the chance of periodic moisture will linger for a few more days. The thick cloud cover on Monday will keep highs relegated to about the 80-degree mark to start the new work week in Houston.

The rain and storm activity will take a bit longer to reach New Orleans. The Big Easy is expecting the worst of the impacts to hit on Monday and Tuesday. Highs are expected to tumble from the low 90s over the weekend into the low 80s for much of the start of the week, offering a little relief from the oppressive conditions.

Secondary Surge of Tropical Moisture Possible Later in the Week

Forecasters are also noting that the feature could shift back into the Gulf after impacting Texas and Louisiana, taking aim at the central Gulf Coast. Alternatively, a second zone of tropical moisture could form over the same general region along a sagging frontal boundary. Any area of low pressure that sets up shop along this front could amplify the rainfall totals.

Although water temperatures throughout the Gulf are warm enough to support the development of a named tropical storm, disruptive wind shear has kept a lid on any type of formation thus far. The expected rainstorm next week would need to detach from the front to take on formal tropical characteristics.

Similar to the weather pattern unfolding over the coasts of Texas and Louisiana this weekend, next week's rainstorm will not need to evolve into a named storm to deliver heavy rain to portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. For instance, residents of Mobile, Alabama, should be ready for heavy rain and widespread storm activity beginning on Tuesday and persisting through Thursday.

There are a lot of moving parts that will determine how much action the Gulf Coast sees through next week. Check back often for all of the latest forecast details.

Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.