The Atlantic Is Nearing a Record for Its Latest-Ever First Hurricane

Is history going to be made this year in the Atlantic? As of September 7, no hurricanes have formed in this part of the world's oceans, putting the season on track to make the record books.

Atlantic Basin on Pace to See Latest First Hurricane

A supercharged El Niño climate phase is being blamed for the quiet Atlantic hurricane season thus far. How calm has it been? An average tropical weather season in this basin produces 14 named storms. Of this number, seven become hurricanes, and three of those go on to become major hurricanes categorized as a Category 3 or higher.

With the climatological peak of the season happening at the end of this week, the basin has only seen five named storms. All of these have remained at tropical storm strength, meaning the Atlantic is still waiting on its first hurricane.

As is typical, the powerful El Niño that has developed this year is putting a lid on tropical development in the Atlantic while the Eastern and Central Pacific basins have seen abnormally high volumes of activity. Conversely, La Niña weather patterns generally result in more activity in the Atlantic and quieter times in the Pacific.  

Going back to the beginning of the satellite era of tracking storms in 1966, the latest first hurricanes of the Atlantic spun up between September 2 and September 11. With no anticipated action in the Atlantic over the next few days, forecasters are becoming more certain that 2026 will go down in history.

What History Tells Us

To put all of these statistics into context, let's dive into the details of five of the latest first Atlantic hurricanes and overall storm volume, their peak strengths, and how El Niño drove these weather patterns.

Going back to 2002 and 2013, both Gustav and Humberto hit hurricane status on September 11. Gustav was born during an El Niño year that generated two major hurricanes and four hurricanes total. Meanwhile, Humberto roamed the basin during a neutral phase that produced only two hurricanes, neither of which reached major status.

While both of these seasons experienced contrasting climate phases in control, the pair recorded almost the same volume of total named features at 15 in 2013 and 14 in 2002. This goes to show that the dominating climate phase is not the only factor driving the tropical weather prevalence.

Hurricane Diana in 1984 and Hurricane Erin in 2001 formed just one day apart on September 10 and September 9, marking a late start to the season for both of these years. Both Diana and Erin sprang up during a neutral phase year that went on to produce a flurry of activity on the back end. The 1984 season ended up with five hurricanes, while 2001 saw nine hurricanes.

These late starts serve as a reminder that a quiet beginning to the season does not always mean that it will end that way. Will 2026 make up for lost time? Stay tuned.

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