The Atlantic Is on Track to Go the Entire Season Without a Hurricane

Will the Atlantic break a record that has stood for 121 years? The abnormally quiet tropical weather season in this part of the world's oceans has put this record in reach.

Atlantic Basin Has Yet to Produce a Hurricane This Season

There has not been a single hurricane in the Atlantic this year, putting a record dating back to 1905 in reach. Although there have been no hurricanes, the basin has produced eight named storms. Three of these tropical storms came ashore along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Forecasting agency Accuweather is now predicting zero to two hurricanes this season in its revised tropical weather forecast. The agency said that the high confidence of a record-breaking Super El Niño developing in the Pacific is to blame for the lack of hurricane activity this year in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean.

What has already been a calm season could go down in the record books if this pattern holds. October 8 is the latest date in history for the first hurricane of the Atlantic basin, a record that goes back to 1905. There have been just two years in recorded history, 1907 and 1914, that closed out the season with no known hurricanes. Should no hurricane come to life this year, it will be the first known time that the Atlantic has not formed a storm of this magnitude since records began in 1851.

Despite the lack of activity this year, hurricane experts caution that there is still time for a major storm to form and intensify. Tropical Storm Fay came just 4 mph shy of becoming a hurricane recently. All it will take is one disturbance to find the right environmental conditions to evolve into a hurricane.

Where to Expect Potential Tropical Development

The ocean waters surrounding the southern tier of the U.S. remain warm enough to support tropical development. The warm waters near the Gulf Coast and the Southeast could prove potentially dangerous, as any storm that erupts in this area could intensify rapidly before making landfall.

The greatest chance of tropical development will be near the Carolinas and along the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast. The central and lower Texas coast will also be under the gun for significant impacts from tropical weather in the weeks ahead.

The intensifying El Niño is to blame for the lack of tropical weather in the Atlantic this year. Conversely, the Eastern Pacific has experienced a greater number of named storms due to the influence of this climate phase.

As is typical, El Niño has increased the presence of disruptive winds over the Atlantic. This wind shear has put a lid on tropical weather development in recent months.

The last three Super El Niños have followed this same trend, with little to no hurricanes when it was in control of the weather. That said, there is always a chance that the perfect storm could support the development of a major storm near the U.S. coastline, meaning now is not the time to relax.

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