The Atlantic Is Set to Make History by Next Week, One Way or Another

Is the Atlantic basin finally starting to wake up from its long slumber? Meteorologists are currently tracking two areas for potential tropical development that could impact the U.S.

Potential Zone of Tropical Development Southeast of Bermuda

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is back on duty in the Atlantic, monitoring two zones of possible action through the end of September. A strengthening El Niño has put a lid on tropical weather across the Atlantic this year, resulting in a record-breaking lack of activity.

The first feature in question is coming together in the central Atlantic several hundred miles to the southeast of Bermuda. While disruptive winds and large pockets of dry air continue to mitigate tropical weather in the Atlantic's Main Development Region (MDR), this zone near Bermuda boasts more favorable conditions for development compared to the rest of the basin.

The most likely timeframe for development would be between September 17 and 21. While this feature is not expected to impact the U.S., Bermuda could be in line for heavy rain, squalls, and rough seas.  

Second Pocket of Concern Near the Gulf Coast

The NHC is also watching an area near the U.S. Gulf Coast for the possibility of a homegrown tropical threat. These types of systems get their name from the point of development just off the U.S. coastline. Unlike more traditional systems that have a long journey across the Atlantic, homegrown systems can strike populated areas in a hurry with little lead time to prepare.

Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard all formed within a few hundred miles of the U.S. shore this season, largely due to the exceptionally warm ocean waters. This could happen later this week if the dip in the jet stream along the Eastern Seaboard allows a storm circulating in the upper levels of the atmosphere to sneak to the southwest and into Florida.

The most likely time and place for development will be near the Gulf Coast heading into the weekend. The next two names on the list of designations for the Atlantic are Fay and Gonzalo.

With only five named storms to date, the Atlantic is falling way behind the pace for named storms this season. This basin typically sees nine named features by the middle of September. Although the Atlantic generates an average of four hurricanes by this point in the season, all of the systems have remained at tropical storm level.

If no hurricane forms by September 21, this season will carry the distinction of being the latest-ever year to produce a storm of this magnitude. 1907 and 1914 are the only two seasons on record with no Atlantic hurricanes. Like this year, 1914 also saw El Niño driving the weather patterns. With more than half of the season in the rearview mirror, it is looking more likely that the year will land well below average for total storms.

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